战略与国际研究中心-Saudi-Arabia-Enters-The-21st-Century_-II-Foreign-Relations-and-External-Security_103页_1mb

Summary of "Saudi Arabia Enters The 21st Century: Foreign Relations and External Security"

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of Saudi Arabia's foreign relations and external security challenges during the early 21st century, focusing on its relationships with key regional and global actors. It outlines the evolving dynamics between Saudi Arabia and its neighbors, the United States, and Iran, while also highlighting the internal and external factors that shape its strategic posture.

Main Points

Primary Threats: Iran and Iraq

• Iraq is identified as the most serious potential threat to Saudi Arabia, despite recent improvements in relations with Iran.
• Iran remains a persistent security concern due to its regional ambitions, religious differences, and historical tensions with Saudi Arabia.
• Saudi Arabia has historically sought to balance its relations between Iran and Iraq, and maintain strong ties with the West to counter these threats.

Religious and Ideological Tensions

• The Wahhabi and Shi'ite religious divide has been a long-standing source of tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
• Historical conflicts include attacks on Saudi religious sites by Iranian-backed extremists, such as the destruction of the shrine of al-Hussein in southern Iraq.
• These tensions have not been fully resolved and continue to influence Saudi foreign policy.

Security Cooperation with the West

• Saudi Arabia played a significant role in the Gulf War, demonstrating its military capabilities and strategic importance to the West.
• However, the presence of US forces in Saudi Arabia after the Gulf War led to domestic opposition, particularly from Islamist groups, including Al-Qaeda, which blamed the US for supporting Israel and for being in "holy places."
• The September 11 attacks highlighted the vulnerability of Saudi internal security and the role of its religious institutions in facilitating extremist activities.

Relations with the United States

• Saudi Arabia has long relied on the United States for security against Iran and Iraq.
• The US military presence in Saudi Arabia, especially after the Gulf War, has been a point of controversy.
• Despite shared interests in energy policy, the Second Intifada and US support for Israel led to public and political strain in Saudi-US relations.
• The US-led war on terror after 9/11 further complicated relations, as Saudi Arabia sought to reduce the US military presence and improve its own security measures.

Relations with the Arab World

• Saudi Arabia has made efforts to improve relations with Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE.
• The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) remains primarily a political alliance, with limited military cooperation.
• The Arab Peace Initiative (2002) was a significant step in Saudi Arabia's foreign policy, calling for a comprehensive peace between Israel and Arab states, including Saudi Arabia.

Internal Security and Diplomatic Efforts

• Saudi Arabia has engaged in diplomatic dialogue with Iran, including high-level meetings and cooperation in oil policy, trade, and internal security.
• Despite these efforts, security concerns remain, particularly regarding Iranian support for terrorism and extremist activities within Saudi Arabia.
• In 1998, an agreement was signed between Saudi Arabia and Iran to cooperate in internal security, focusing on fighting terrorism, organized crime, and drug trafficking.

Key Information

• Military capabilities: Saudi Arabia has a large military force, with significant ground and air capabilities, but faces declining military readiness and external threats.
• Security challenges: The risk of regional conflicts, terrorism, and Iranian interference remain critical issues for Saudi foreign policy.
• Diplomatic progress: Relations with Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE have improved in recent years.
• Arab-Israeli conflict: The Second Intifada and US support for Israel have strained Saudi-US relations, despite shared strategic interests.
• US-Iran relations: Saudi Arabia has expressed hope that improved relations with Iran could lead to better US-Iran relations, though this remains uncertain.
• Hajj tensions: The annual pilgrimage has been a source of religious and political friction, with Iranian pilgrims often holding anti-Western rallies.

Conclusion

Saudi Arabia's foreign relations and external security in the early 21st century are shaped by regional rivalries, religious differences, and strategic alliances with the West. While it has made progress in improving relations with some Arab neighbors and engaging in dialogue with Iran, the threats from Iran and Iraq and the complexity of the Arab-Israeli conflict continue to challenge its foreign policy. The post-9/11 era has intensified these tensions, requiring Saudi Arabia to reassess its strategic partnerships and internal security policies.