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U.S. Policy in Central Asia: Looking Ahead

Introduction

Martha Brill Olcott, a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, provides testimony to the U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations regarding U.S. policy in Central Asia. Despite increased congressional attention, U.S. priorities in the region have remained largely unchanged over the past eight years, driven by three main objectives: supporting ISAF operations in Afghanistan, promoting access to Central Asian energy resources, and advancing democratic values and market economies. However, there is a growing recognition that without addressing the latter, long-term stability may not be achieved. U.S. support for multiple pipelines has become a consistent policy, but its effectiveness is questioned.

What Has Changed in Central Asia?

Geopolitical Shifts

• Central Asian countries have become more engaged in the international community.
• Kazakhstan is set to chair the OSCE, and Turkmenistan has redefined its neutrality doctrine to allow greater international involvement.
• U.S. leaders have not visited the region, while lower-level officials have made limited appearances.

Rise of China

• China has significantly increased its influence through energy and trade agreements.
• A new gas pipeline links Central Asian gas fields with Chinese markets, expected to ship two-thirds of current Russian gas volumes.
• China has provided substantial financing to Kazakhstan and increased trade with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, including major infrastructure projects.

Decline of Russian Influence

• Russia's ability to reassert economic and military dominance has diminished.
• The CSTO has not evolved into a strong regional force, and Uzbekistan has restricted its military participation.
• Russia's economic position has weakened due to the global crisis and lower gas demand from Europe.

Increased Islamic Influence

• Islamic actors are gaining more presence in Central Asia, particularly in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
• While governments maintain relations with Israel and support Jewish communities, Islamic influence is growing, especially through education and infrastructure.

U.S. Withdrawal Concerns

• Central Asian states are increasingly concerned about U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
• They seek to protect their interests, including borders and relations with Afghanistan, as the region's stability may be affected.

What Has Changed Within Central Asia: Increasing Political, Social, and Economic Differentiation

Political Systems

• None of the countries are fully democratic, but they are developing distinct political systems.
• Kazakhstan has shown some political openness, but faces challenges in judicial independence and electoral fairness.
• Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have seen a concentration of power in the presidency, with limited space for opposition and NGOs.
• Uzbekistan has improved its legal system and released some political prisoners, but remains cautious in its relations with the U.S.
• Turkmenistan has experienced a political opening since Niyazov's death, but public and private freedoms remain restricted.

Economic Conditions

• Kazakhstan has the strongest economy and has managed to stabilize through its National Fund.
• Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have largely state-controlled economies, making them less affected by the global crisis but still in need of reform.
• Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan face severe energy shortages and economic challenges, particularly in rural areas.

Social Trends

• The region is becoming more culturally and linguistically diverse.
• Retraditionalization is occurring, especially in rural areas, with Islam playing an increasing role.
• Western-educated youth are becoming more prominent, but without improvements in rural conditions, they may feel disconnected from their communities.

Lessons to be Drawn

1. Military Assistance: The U.S. should increase military support, particularly for border security and control.
2. Pipeline Strategy: Revisit the multiple pipeline strategy, as the new China-linked pipeline offers a viable alternative to Russia.
3. Democracy Building: Approach democracy building with sensitivity to country-specific contexts and generational changes.
4. Energy Cooperation: Enhance coordination with IFIs and bilateral partners to address energy shortages and long-term challenges, emphasizing local ownership and bottom-up engagement.

Conclusion

The U.S. must reassess its policy in Central Asia, considering the region's evolving geopolitical, economic, and social landscape. While security and energy access remain critical, the long-term stability of the region depends on addressing political and social development in a more nuanced and effective manner.