2025-06-10-花旗集团-特拉维尔治疗公司（TVTX）_特拉弗尔治疗公司（TVTX.O）2025年第一季度模型更新_13页_577kb

Travere Therapeutics (TVTX.O) Citi Research 1Q25 Model Update Summary

Key Model Update: Citi revised its valuation for Travere Therapeutics (TVTX.O) due to 1Q25 reporting. The target price was下调 from $35 to $32 per share, reflecting lower EPS forecasts driven by adjustments in share count and regulatory outcomes. Citi's "Buy / High Risk" recommendation emphasizes upside from catalysts, but higher risk due to financial volatility.

Catalysts and Forecast Changes: The catalyst watch includes the anticipated full approval of Filspari in the EU by the end of 2025, increasing potential sales share position from 85% to 100%, and the FDA PDUFA date of January 13, 2026, for the sNDA seeking a lighter Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) for Filspari in IgA Nephropathy (IgAN) and potential label expansion to Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis (FSGS). Full approval in the EU is expected to boost EU royalty income under Citi's model.

Financial Overview: Citi's financial model projects significant growth for Travere, with peak US sales for Filspari in IgAN reaching $735M by 2032 and FSGS contributing ~$325M in risk-adjusted sales. Revenue growth is强劲, with a 35% year-over-year increase in 2026E, driven by Filspari commercial momentum. However, current losses indicate high operational risks, with projected net margins improving from negative values to positive by 2027E.

Investment Thesis: Recommended for high-risk buyers with a $32 target based on DCF analysis using a 10% WACC and -25% terminal growth rate. Key opportunities include Filspari uptake in both IgAN and FSGS, and pegtibatinase for classical homocystinuria (HCU). Upside stems from strong nephrology market overlap, but Citi warns of risks if uptake lags.

Risks: High inherent risk due to regulatory delays, competitive threats from emerging treatments, and clinical uncertainties in pegtibatinase trials. Citi's high-risk rating reflects potential underperformance if these risks materialize, though upside could reach 114.6% expected total return based on current models.

Valuation and Metrics: Valuation ratios like PE are highly negative currently, but DCF suggests a fair value of $32 with a focus on future cash flows. Market cap is $1,324M at $14.91 share price, with no dividend yield.

Company Focus: Travere is a commercial-stage biotech specializing in rare kidney diseases. Filspari (sparsentan) treats IgAN and is seeking approval for FSGS. Other pipeline assets include pegtibatinase for HCU and established products like Thiola.

Overall: Summarizes a bullish view on regulatory catalysts without guaranteed outcomes, highlighting growth potential but emphasizing high volatility and risks in biotech investment.