2021-10-31-世界银行-撒哈拉以南非洲的工业化_抓住全球价值链中的机遇（英）_203页_11mb

ISBN 978-1-4648-1673-4

SKU 211673

Industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Seizing Opportunities in Global Value Chains

Key Findings and Recommendations

1. Industrialization is a viable path for Sub-Saharan Africa

• Sub-Saharan Africa has not experienced premature deindustrialization. The region has seen substantial growth in manufacturing employment (e.g., 148% increase from 8.6 million to 21.3 million jobs between 1990 and 2018) and moderate increases in value-added.
• Industrialization is integral to the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and national development strategies, particularly in countries like Ethiopia and Rwanda.

2. Global Value Chains (GVCs) drive job and productivity growth

• Participation in GVCs has led to job creation, especially in Ethiopia and Kenya. For example, global demand boosted manufacturing jobs in Ethiopia by 150,000 (Pahl et al. 2019).
• GVC integration increases productivity, with backward links (imported intermediates) being more impactful, but forward links (exports of intermediates) are essential for job growth.
• Countries like Rwanda and Tanzania have shown upgrades in GVC participation despite overall declines in some Sub-Saharan African nations.

3. Policy recommendations

• Integrate: Promote trade liberalization (e.g., AGOA, EBA), reduce tariffs, and strengthen regional trade agreements like the AfCFTA to boost intraregional integration.
• Compete: Ease entry barriers, reduce capital requirements, and reform state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to improve market competition.
• Upgrade: Invest in digital infrastructure, skills development, and R&D to align with high-skill GVC tasks.
• Enable: Invest in physical (e.g., transport, energy) and digital infrastructure, and improve access to finance and education.

4. Challenges and opportunities

• Despite progress, challenges remain, such as high informality, skills gaps, and regulatory barriers.
• Non-resource-rich countries have seen a decline in GVC participation, while minerals-rich nations have shown improvement.
• Opportunities lie in leveraging GVC integration, intraregional trade, and digital technologies (e.g., AI, IoT) to drive sustainable industrialization.

Conclusion

Sub-Saharan Africa can achieve industrialization through strategic integration into GVCs, supported by policies that enhance trade, infrastructure, and human capital. This pathway offers significant potential for job creation, productivity growth, and inclusive development.