世界银行-农业意外之财和电气化（英）-2025.1_42页_1mb

Summary

This paper investigates the impact of agricultural price shocks, specifically focusing on coffee prices, on the demand for electrification in Rwanda. Using administrative data on electricity connections and consumption, along with historical coffee price data, the study employs a difference-in-difference approach to identify the effects of coffee price fluctuations.

Key findings:

• Coffee Price Shocks and Electrification: A 10% increase in coffee prices is associated with a 1.3% increase in the electrification rate. The historical increase in coffee prices between 2000 and 2019 (a 20% rise) explains approximately 4% of the overall increase in Rwanda's electrification rate.
• Mechanisms: The increase in electrification is driven by two main factors:
  1. Relaxation of liquidity constraints, allowing households to afford upfront connection fees;
  2. Increased demand for electrical appliances, which boosts electricity consumption by connected households.
• Value-Addition: The introduction of coffee mills to improve processing methods also enhances demand for electricity, suggesting that income windfalls from value-addition activities amplify electrification efforts.

The results indicate that aligning electrification efforts with periods of agricultural income windfalls can significantly increase access to electricity, particularly in rural areas. The study provides policy insights for designing electrification programs that leverage seasonal income peaks to overcome financial barriers.