2025-01-19-世界银行-农业意外之财和电气化（英）_42页_1mb

Summary

Background

This paper examines how income windfalls from agriculture, specifically coffee price shocks, influence demand for electrification in Rwanda using administrative and household data.

Methodology

• Utilized two decades of electricity connection data (2000–2019) and household surveys.
• Employs a difference-in-difference design exploiting exogenous variations in international coffee prices.
• Explores mechanisms through billing records and appliance ownership data.

Key Findings

1. Positive Effect of Coffee Prices on Electrification:

   • A 10% increase in coffee prices was associated with a 1.3% increase in electrification rates (section 5.2).
   • Accounts for about 4% of Rwanda’s observed electrification rate increase between 2000 and 2019.

2. Mechanism Analysis:

   • Relaxing Liquidity Constraints: Prepayment policies reduced the impact of upfront fees, showing coffee price shocks affected uptake only before policy changes.
   • Increased Demand for Appliances: Higher coffee prices correlated with increased household ownership of electrical appliances (table 10).

3. Role of Value-Addition:

   • Introduction of coffee mills (increasing value-addition) positively influenced electrification rates (table 8).

Robustness Checks

• Placebo tests and "leave-one-out" analyses show consistent results.
• Spatial analysis reveals no preferential grid rollout in coffee-growing areas (table 5).

Conclusion

• Coffee price shocks relax liquidity constraints and boost demand for appliances, driving electrification.
• Polices aligning electrification efforts with harvest seasons could enhance adoption.