世界发展银行-The-Impact-of-COVID-19-on-Foreign-Investors---Evidence-from-the-Quarterly-Global-MNE-Pulse-Survey-for-the-Third-Quarter-of-2020_26页_5mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Impact of COVID-19 on Foreign Investors: Third Quarter 2020

Core Content

This document presents findings from the Quarterly Global MNE Pulse Survey conducted in the third quarter of 2020 (July–September), focusing on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on multinational enterprises (MNEs) operating in developing countries. It also provides insights into the anticipated effects in the fourth quarter (October–December) and the support mechanisms used by MNEs and their affiliates to navigate the crisis.

Main Findings

Adverse Effects in Q3 2020

97% of MNE affiliates experienced adverse effects, including reduced demand, supply chain disruptions, and lower revenue/profits.
Two-thirds of respondents reported reduced profits (net income).
Supply chain disruptions were widespread, with 40% of MNE affiliates experiencing a decline in supply chain reliability.
Worker productivity dropped for almost 75% of firms, with supply-side impacts being more severe than demand-side.
Input costs decreased on average by 10%, driven by falling prices of key inputs like energy and raw materials.
Manufacturing firms were more severely impacted than services firms, with 55% of manufacturing MNEs affected by supply chain reliability, compared to 28% in services.
Smaller firms (fewer than 250 employees) were more vulnerable, with 58% affected by employment issues versus 48% for larger firms.

Regional Variations in Q3 2020

Middle East and North Africa (MENA) had the highest proportion of firms affected by reduced demand (82%).
East Asia and the Pacific had the least severe impacts, particularly on demand and investment.
Supply chain reliability was most affected in Europe and Central Asia (32%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (49%).
Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest proportion of firms affected by reduced employment (68%).

Anticipated Effects in Q4 2020

93% of MNE affiliates expect adverse effects in the fourth quarter, slightly less than in Q3 (97%).
Demand is expected to improve slightly, with 56% of firms anticipating lower-than-normal demand (down from 63% in Q3).
Supply chain reliability is expected to improve, with 32% of firms anticipating issues (down from 41% in Q3).
Investment is expected to decrease, with 52% of firms anticipating reduced investment (down from 65% in Q3).
Manufacturing firms are still more likely to experience adverse impacts on employment and output.
South Asian firms showed the most improvement in investment and output expectations.

Investment and Supply Chain Adjustments

40% of MNE affiliates reported changes in investment levels, with a focus on nearshoring and diversifying production locations.
East Asia and the Pacific firms showed the highest proportion of investment changes, with higher shares of firms expecting both increases and decreases in investment.
No consistent regional realignment pattern was observed, such as a shift away from China.

Government and Parent Company Support

90% of MNE affiliates received government support related to the pandemic.
61% of MNE affiliates received support from foreign parents, with financial, technological, and managerial assistance being the most common forms.
Support from parents was most common in MENA (72%), while Latin America and the Caribbean had the lowest (45%).
Financial support was more prevalent in East Asia and the Pacific (81%), while technological and managerial support was more common in South Asia (84%).
MNE affiliates that received support from parents were more likely to support their local suppliers, with 63% providing support compared to 44% of those that did not.

Key Information

Overall Impact: Adverse effects on MNEs in developing countries were widespread but less severe than in previous quarters.
Financial Impact: Average revenue and net income declines were 12% in Q3, and expected to be 9% and 7% in Q4.
Investment Trends: 85% of MNE affiliates expect investment in host countries to remain the same or decline.
Supply Chain Adjustments: Many MNEs are realigning supply chains, with a focus on nearshoring and diversification.
Support Mechanisms: Parent company support is a critical factor in resilience and recovery, with technological and managerial assistance being most common.
Regional Outlook: East Asia and the Pacific and South Asia showed more positive outlooks compared to Europe and Central Asia and MENA.

Conclusion

The third quarter of 2020 saw continued adverse impacts on MNE affiliates in developing countries, although these effects were less severe than in the previous quarter. Uncertainty around the pandemic and economic recovery remained high, with limited optimism for the fourth quarter. Manufacturing firms and smaller enterprises were most affected, while services firms and East Asia and the Pacific firms showed greater resilience. Parent company support and government assistance played a key role in helping firms navigate the crisis, and supply chain adjustments were increasingly common. Regional differences in impact and response were notable, with MENA facing greater demand challenges and Europe and Central Asia experiencing more severe supply chain issues.