世界发展银行-The-Impact-of-COVID-19-on-Foreign-Investors---Evidence-from-the-Quarterly-Global-MNE-Pulse-Survey-for-the-Fourth-Quarter-of-2020_21页_684kb

Summary of the Impact of COVID-19 on Foreign Investors: Evidence from the Quarterly Global MNE Pulse Survey for the Fourth Quarter of 2020

Core Content

This report presents findings from the fourth quarter of 2020 of the World Bank Group's Global MNE Pulse Survey, which assessed the impact of the pandemic on multinational enterprises (MNEs) and their affiliates in developing countries. It highlights how MNEs have adapted to the crisis and outlines the evolving outlook for future investment and supply chain strategies.

Main Findings

Adverse Effects of the Pandemic

• In Q4 2020, 93% of MNE affiliates in developing countries reported being adversely affected on at least one business dimension, a slight improvement from 97% in Q3 2020.
• The manufacturing sector was more negatively impacted than the services sector, with reduced demand and ongoing supply chain disruptions being key drivers.
• All affiliates in the Middle East and North Africa and East Asia and Pacific reported adverse impacts, while Europe and Central Asia and Latin America saw relatively fewer impacts.

Improvement in 2020 Performance

• 86% of MNE affiliates reported less disruption in operations and better financial performance in the second half of 2020 compared to the first half.
• Market conditions, easing supply chain challenges, and increased government support were the primary drivers of improvement.
• Manufacturing firms experienced more severe impacts on output and profits than services firms.

Technology and Sustainability Adoption

• 90% of MNE affiliates reported deploying new digital solutions to manage supply chains and engage with customers.
• 75% of MNEs took steps to increase environmental sustainability.
• Manufacturing firms were more likely to adopt automation and robotics, with 45% reporting increased use.
• MNEs headquartered in developed countries were more likely to adopt advanced technologies, with 50% increasing automation use compared to 27% from developing countries.

Future Investment Outlook

• There was a less negative outlook for future investment, with 17% expecting to increase investment and 75% expecting to maintain current levels.
• Very few MNE affiliates (about 1%) expected to reduce investment in the next 1-3 years.
• Regulatory and policy environment improvements were a key driver for increased investment, cited by 91% of respondents.
• Growth potential and cost competitiveness of host countries were also important factors, with 82% and 64% of firms citing them respectively.

Employment and Investment Trends

• Two-thirds of MNE affiliates reported reduced worker productivity, and half reported reduced employment in Q4 2020.
• Smaller firms and export-oriented firms were more likely to experience employment reductions.
• Investment levels were more affected in East Asia and Pacific, Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia, compared to Europe and Central Asia and Latin America.

Uncertainty and Policy Influence

• Government policies played a critical role in helping MNEs weather the crisis and shape future investment.
• More than half of MNE affiliates reported positive changes in the regulatory environment, possibly due to the lifting of pandemic-related investment barriers.
• Uncertainty about the future remains high, with only 23% of MNEs very confident in their forecasts, and 72% only somewhat certain.

Key Information

• Survey Methodology: Conducted online from February 5 to March 4, 2021, with 329 MNE affiliates across 37 developing countries.
• Focus Areas: The survey analyzed demand and supply chain effects, investment and employment changes, financial performance, and technology and sustainability adoption.
• Regional Variations:
  • East Asia and Pacific, Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia faced the most severe impacts.
  • Europe and Central Asia and Latin America had milder impacts and more stable investment.
• Business Model Influence:
  • Export-oriented firms were more impacted by demand and supply chain issues.
  • Market-oriented firms were more likely to benefit from less severe lockdowns and government support.

Conclusion

The survey highlights a gradual recovery in MNE performance and a less negative outlook for future investment. While the pandemic has had a profound impact, particularly on manufacturing and export-oriented firms, the adoption of digital tools and sustainability measures has become more widespread. Government policies and improving market conditions are key factors influencing both current performance and future investment decisions, with a clear shift towards more sustainable and digitally enabled operations.