东盟能源手册2025-第2卷_低碳氢（英）-2025_13页_2mb

Summary of ASEAN Low-Carbon Hydrogen Outlook

Context and Potential

• Energy Demand Growth: ASEAN's total final energy consumption is projected to increase by around 2.6 times by 2050 (vs. 2020). This growth, combined with commitments to carbon reduction and an ASEAN-wide strategy for carbon neutrality, drives exploration of low-carbon hydrogen.
• Hydrogen Demand Projection: By 2050, under the Carbon Neutrality Scenario of the 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook, hydrogen demand is expected to reach 50.33 Mtoe.
• Potential Benefits: Hydrogen can serve as a low-carbon alternative across various sectors (industry, transportation, power generation), supporting decarbonization goals.

Challenges to Adoption

Five main challenges identified for low-carbon hydrogen development in ASEAN:

1. High Costs:

   • Green hydrogen costs ~9-12 USD/kg; blue hydrogen ~2.8–3.5 USD/kg.
   • Both are significantly more expensive than grey hydrogen (~1-2 USD/kg), driven by high tech and equipment costs.

2. Lack of Incentives:

   • Currently limited incentives for hydrogen development.
   • Existing incentives are mostly in the form of tax breaks for hydrogen-related sectors and renewable energy (RE) technologies.

3. High Electricity Prices:

   • The cost of green hydrogen production is heavily influenced by expensive renewable electricity prices in several ASEAN countries.

4. Lack of Offtake/Demand:

   • Weak sectoral RE targets in ASEAN Member States reduce drivers for hydrogen adoption, as there is no mandate compelling sectors to switch to hydrogen.

5. Lack of Infrastructure:

   • Insufficient infrastructure (pipelines, compressors, fuel cells, etc.) due to high upfront costs and risks.

Recommendations and Strategies

1. Develop a Clear Hydrogen Utilization Strategy

• National hydrogen strategies are being developed or formalized in several ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Viet Nam, Philippines, Laos, and included in Thailand's national plans).
• Countries are setting targets for hydrogen production and utilization, with some implementing phased approaches toward decarbonization by 2050–2060.

2. Increase Regional Capacity in Hydrogen Technology and Supply Chains

• Trade Initiatives: ASEAN countries are actively involved in hydrogen trade (both local and international), valued at ~$396 million USD (domestic) and ~$1,402.5 million USD (international) in 2022.
• Supply Chain Development: Transition toward a low-carbon hydrogen supply chain is critical.
• Borneo Islands: With abundant RE potential, Indonesia and Malaysia could play a leading role in developing exportable green hydrogen capacity.

3. Initiate Hydrogen Pilot Projects and Demonstrations

• Several pilot projects and initiatives are underway or in planning stages, including:
  • Brunei–Japan hydrogen supply chain project.
  • Cambodia's multi-MW renewable hydrogen power plants.
  • Thailand's pilot hydrogen storage project.
  • Indonesia's hydrogen-compatible power plant in Sumba.
  • Laos' renewable ammonia and low-carbon fertilizer project.

4. Policy and Regulatory Support

• Financial Incentives: Governments should provide subsidies, tax credits, low-interest loans, and direct funding to offset high project costs.
• De-Risking Measures: Use government-backed guarantees and insurance schemes to reduce perceived investment risks.
• Sectoral Mandates: Implement limitations on carbon emissions and fuel mix requirements to encourage hydrogen adoption.
• Carbon Pricing: Adopt carbon pricing and credit mechanisms to incentivize investments in low-carbon hydrogen technologies.

Key Initiatives and Reports

• Several reports and policy briefs were cited or developed to support ASEAN hydrogen strategy, including the ASEAN Energy Booklet: Low-Carbon Hydrogen in ASEAN and the Roadmap (ALERT) – Phase I.

Conclusion

• Low-carbon hydrogen presents a significant opportunity for ASEAN to meet rising energy demands sustainably while accelerating decarbonization efforts across regions. However, addressing challenges related to costs, infrastructure, demand, and policy support is essential to realizing its potential.

Source: ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE), Low-Carbon Hydrogen in ASEAN, 2024.