2025-03-02-世界银行-也门气候和健康脆弱性评估（英）_66页_7mb

报告摘要

Climate and Health Vulnerability Assessment: The Republic of Yemen

This report assesses climate-related health risks in The Republic of Yemen and outlines measures to enhance resilience. Here is a summary of the key findings and recommendations.

1. Climate Overview

Observed Climate: Yemen experiences rising temperatures (0.42°C per decade) and modest precipitation decreases (6.25 mm per decade) since 1971.
Future Projections: Under SSP3-7.0, temperatures will increase by +0.76°C (2020-2039) and +1.64°C (2040-2059). Precipitation will increase (+17% by 2050), but uncertainty remains.
Key Hazards: More frequent/ intense floods, droughts, sea-level rises, and extreme heatwaves. Coastal areas face cyclones and saltwater intrusion, while highlands risk flooding and landslides. Extreme heat may exacerbate NCDs like stroke and heart disease.

2. Climate-Related Health Risks

Six primary risks are evaluated:

Nutrition and Food Insecurity: Climate change could expose 1.2 million to hunger by 2050, worsen malnutrition (stunting projected +89,000 cases), and reduce crop yields.
Waterborne Diseases (WBDs): Water scarcity and flooding increase diarrheal diseases; a 43% rise in diarrhea cases and ~$156M in excess costs are projected by 2050.
Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs): Malaria and dengue risks may increase by 25.2M and 40.7M people by mid-century under SSP2-4.5, contributing ~$44.36B in health costs.
Heat-Related Morbidity: Extreme heat exposure may grow, disproportionately affecting children and outdoor workers, leading to excess deaths and costs.
Direct Flood Exposure: By 2050, ~5.3M people could face flooding; health infrastructure in 433 facilities at risk under a 100-year flood event.
Flood Health Infrastructure: Critical facilities, like hospitals, could face flooding (e.g., 12 facilities in Sayun district).

3. Adaptive Capacity and Readiness

Governance: Lacks a cohesive climate and health strategy, with limited implementation mechanisms.
Health Information Systems: Data-scarce, but the eDEWS system shows potential; financing and awareness gaps persist.
Service Delivery: Conflict has crippled health infrastructure; workforce shortages and emergency response strain further resilience.
Health Financing: Public spending lags, with heavy reliance on foreign aid; no dedicated climate-health budget.

4. Proposed Actions

Leadership & Governance: Establish a Climate and Health Coordination Office and develop a Health National Adaptation Plan.
Health Information Systems: Integrate climate data into surveillance (e.g., connect eDEWS to predictive models); enhance data collection.
Health Service Delivery: Improve planning for facility design (climate-resilient construction); train staff for climate emergencies; prioritize IDP populations.
Health Financing: Leverage global climate funds (e.g., Green Climate Fund) for resilient health infrastructure; explore insurance mechanisms.