金融_技术和商业劳动力和技能预测（英）_49页_1018kb

报告摘要

Finance, Technology & Business Workforce and Skills Projections Summary

Core Content

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the future workforce and skillset demands in the Finance, Technology & Business (FTB) sectors in Australia, projecting trends from FY24 to FY30. It emphasizes the need for targeted workforce planning and training to address anticipated shortages and skill mismatches.

Workforce Demand Outlook

FTB Industry Workforce: Expected to grow from 1.8 million in FY24 to just over 2.1 million in FY30, representing a 2.4% annual growth rate, significantly higher than Australia's overall employment growth rate of 1.3%.
Technology Industry: The fastest-growing sector within FTB, with a 4.0% annual growth rate, projected to reach just over 600,000 workers by FY30. The computer system design and related services sub-industry is the main driver, growing at 4.6% annually and accounting for 73% of the technology industry in FY24, rising to 75% by FY30.
Finance Industry: The largest FTB industry, with 38% of total employment in FY24, but the weakest growth at 1.8% annually. It is heavily impacted by cost pressures, especially in insurance.
Business Industry: Expected to grow at 1.9% annually, reaching nearly 750,000 workers by FY30. However, it faces the highest attrition rate at 20.2% due to its older workforce.

Workforce Supply Trends

Total FTB Industry Workforce Supply: Projected to grow from 1.8 million in FY24 to 2.0 million in FY30, at a 1.5% annual rate, outperforming the broader economy's 1.1% growth.
Finance Industry: Growth rate of 1.2% annually, with accounting services facing 21.1% attrition due to a high proportion of workers over 50.
Technology Industry: Lowest attrition rate at 15.3%, driven by a younger workforce (77% under 50). However, libraries and archives and magazine publishing sub-industries have higher attrition rates.
Business Industry: Expected to grow at 1.4% annually, but with 20.2% attrition. Sub-industries like management advice & consulting and legal services face elevated attrition.

Workforce Gap Assessment

FTB Industry Workforce Gap: Expected to reach 108,000 by FY30, with 80% of the gap concentrated in computer system design and related services.
FTB Occupation Workforce Gap: Projected to reach 243,000 by FY30, driven by broad-based demand growth across all industries. The largest gap is in bookkeepers, accounting clerks, receptionists, office managers, and key ICT roles.
Skills Mismatch: Under a skills-based analysis, the skill shortage is 11% larger than the workforce gap in FTB industries and 20% larger in FTB occupations. Computer science specialist skills are in the greatest deficit, while business and management specialist skills can be partially resolved through workforce transitions.

Key Recommendations

Increase Total Supply: Focus on boosting the overall supply of workers entering the FTB workforce to address the expected 108,000 shortage by FY30.
Target Technology Sub-Industry: Prioritize computer system design and related services, which will account for 45% of the projected FTB industry shortage.
Support Key Occupations: Target bookkeepers, accounting clerks, receptionists, office managers, and ICT roles for workforce planning in FTB occupations.
Local Supply for Technology: Increase local supply through education and job movements to reduce exposure to migration policy changes.
Training Packages: Develop training programs to support upskilling and reskilling, especially for computer science specialist skills.
Leverage Workforce Transitions: Consider transitioning workers from declining process-driven business occupations to fill skillset deficits in other FTB areas.
Broad Training Support: Training for FTB occupations may need to cover a wider range of skillsets, including accounting, business & management, and computer science.
Prioritize Critical Skills: Leave easily transferable skillsets to market forces, while focusing training efforts on upskilling and retraining.

Skills-Based Workforce Definition

Foundational Skills: Include numeracy, reading, writing, and oral communication, with proficiency levels (basic, intermediate, high) defined by the Australian Skills Classification (ASC).
Generalist Skills: Focus on digital engagement, initiative & innovation, learning, planning & organisation, problem-solving, and teamwork.
Specialist Skills: Defined by skill level (1–5) and field of education (4-digit ASCED classification). Skill level 1 is the highest, indicating advanced industry-specific knowledge.

Summary of Trends

High-Growth Industries: The technology industry is the main driver of FTB workforce demand growth, with computer system design and related services leading the way.
Structural Shifts: ICT occupations are projected to grow significantly, while clerical and administrative roles face structural declines due to automation and AI adoption.
Migration Impact: The technology industry benefits most from migration, with 58,600 new workers expected by FY30. However, finance and business industries also see notable gains, albeit smaller in absolute numbers.

Conclusion

The FTB workforce is expected to face significant shortages by FY30, with a focus on computer science specialist skills and business support roles. A skills-based approach is critical to understanding and addressing these gaps. Targeted workforce planning, training development, and migration strategies will be essential to meet future demand and reduce the risk of skill mismatches.

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