国际战略研究中心-能源过渡战略：埃塞俄比亚的低碳发展之路（英文）-2020.10-27页_8mb

Ethiopia's Low-Carbon Development Pathway Summary

Core Content

Ethiopia is a notable example of a low-carbon development strategy in an emerging economy. Since 2000, its economy has grown fivefold, yet its per capita CO2 emissions from energy remain among the lowest globally, largely due to its heavy reliance on hydroelectricity. The country's strategy, known as the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE), aims to achieve economic growth without increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030. This is supported by a focus on sustainable industries, expanding renewable energy infrastructure, and attracting foreign investment in clean energy.

Main Points

Ethiopia's Energy and Climate Ambitions

• Economic Growth and Low Emissions: Ethiopia's GDP has increased fivefold since 2000, and its per capita CO2 emissions from energy are the fourth-lowest in the world.
• CRGE Strategy: The CRGE strategy, introduced in 2011, aims to transform Ethiopia into a lower-middle-income country by 2025 without increasing GHG emissions.
• Key Targets: Ethiopia's goal is to reduce per capita emissions by almost 39% from 2010 to 2030. It aims to keep emissions from energy at 90 Mt CO2e by 2030, while emissions from other sectors are expected to grow, but will be offset by sustainable practices in agriculture and forestry.

Success Stories

1. Industries Without Smokestacks

   • Ethiopia is promoting sectors that generate economic growth and export revenue without significant emissions.
   • Tourism has grown fourfold since 2005, contributing $3.5 billion in export earnings.
   • Horticulture, particularly cut flower exports, is now the fifth-largest export and generates over $250 million in revenue.
   • The country has established eco-industrial parks that focus on sustainable technologies and generate employment and exports.

2. Expanding Electricity Infrastructure and Access

   • Ethiopia's electricity generation capacity has nearly tripled from 2009 to 2019, reaching over 4,500 MW.
   • Hydropower dominates the energy mix, making the electricity sector one of the least carbon-intensive globally.
   • Grid expansion has increased electricity access from 10% in 2005 to 34% in 2017, reaching over 6,000 electrified towns and villages.
   • Off-grid initiatives have been supported by multilateral institutions like the World Bank and IFC, promoting sustainable markets for solar lighting.

3. Attracting Foreign Capital in the Power Sector

   • Ethiopia has signed agreements for over 1,500 MW of renewable electricity capacity since 2015, signaling a shift from a state-owned model to one that includes foreign investors.
   • Chinese investment has played a major role, especially in hydropower and infrastructure development.
   • Market reforms since 2013 have included deregulation, privatization, and public-private partnerships (PPPs), enabling more foreign and private investment in the power sector.

4. Improving Urban Mobility

   • Ethiopia is developing light-rail transit (LRT) and bus rapid transit (BRT) systems to reduce reliance on automobiles.
   • These systems are supported by international partners like China and the French Development Agency.
   • The country aims to promote non-motorized travel through footpaths and bike lanes, aligning with global urban planning best practices.

Key Challenges

• Political Stability: Changes in leadership may affect the continuity of green growth initiatives.
• Geopolitical Tensions: The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has caused diplomatic disputes, particularly with Egypt.
• Climate Risks: Ethiopia's heavy reliance on hydropower makes it vulnerable to climate change, which could reduce hydroelectric output.
• Infrastructure Gaps: Transmission and distribution (T&D) infrastructure is underdeveloped, leading to reliability issues and high self-generation costs.
• Last-Mile Access: Despite proximity to grid infrastructure, only 34% of households are connected, highlighting the need for improved access and affordability.
• Policy Implementation: While the CRGE is well-structured at the national level, many local officials are unaware of the strategy, and enforcement capacity is limited.

Conclusion

Ethiopia's low-carbon development pathway represents a bold experiment in sustainable growth. By focusing on renewable energy, sustainable industries, and efficient urban mobility, the country is pioneering a new model of development. However, it faces significant challenges, including political shifts, climate change, and infrastructure limitations. The success of the CRGE strategy will depend on maintaining institutional continuity, securing foreign investment, and addressing local implementation gaps. Despite these challenges, Ethiopia's approach offers a potential model for other developing nations aiming to achieve green growth.