20140204-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_13页_400kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - 4 February 2014

Core Content Overview

This report provides a financial and market analysis for various sectors, including Banks, Conglomerates/Infrastructure, Telecom, Utilities, and Consumer. It includes updated financial figures, analyst insights, and forecasts for the year 2014 and beyond.

Key Financial Data (Barometers)

Indicator	Value	% Chg
PSEi	6,015.30	-0.43
Turnover (PHPm)	5,635.15	-36.36
PLDT ADR (USD)	58.11	-2.47
PLDT ADR (PHP)	2,638.78	-2.27
Ave interbank rate	2.00	0
PHP/USD rate	45.39	-0.10

Source: Bloomberg

Analysts

Luz Lorenzo – Head of Research / Economist
Laura Dy-Liacco – Analyst (focused on Aboitiz Power Corp)
Rommel Rodrigo, Lovell Sarreal, Katherine Tan, Ramon Adviento – Other analysts

Contact details are provided for each analyst.

Top Idea: Utilities Sector

Aboitiz Power Corp (AP) is highlighted as a key player in the utilities sector.
The report suggests that AP is "Good for 2015" and the target price is upgraded to PHP37.30 from PHP35.25.
Recommendation: HOLD, as the upside potential remains below 10%.
New projects such as the Tudaya hydro (1Q14), Sabangan hydro (1Q15), and Davao coal (1H15) are expected to boost earnings in 2015.

Market Talk

Banks

Security Bank Corp (SECB) reported a 33% YoY decline in 2013 net income to PHP5b, which aligns with the full-year estimate of PHP5.2b and market consensus forecast of PHP5.3b.
ROE dropped sharply to 13% in 2013 from 22.3% in 2012.
Loans grew by 38% to PHP165b, funded by a 45% increase in deposits.
4Q13 net income is estimated at PHP775m, down 39% YoY and 69% QoQ.
Trading losses in 4Q13 are expected, compared to PHP1.7b gains in 3Q13.
Revised 2014 net income forecast is PHP5.3b, representing 7.4% YoY growth.
Price target remains at PHP122.50, equivalent to 1.6x 2014F PBV and 13.8x PER.
At current prices, the potential upside is 9% and dividend yield is 1.8%.

Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI)

BPI aims for a more than 20% rise in corporate loans in 2014.
Corporate loan portfolio stood at PHP460b in 2013.
Foreign investor loans, especially from Japanese clients, increased by over 30%.
Earnings forecast for 2014 is PHP20.31b, with a target price of PHP96.00 and 1.6x PBV.
Dividend yield is 1.8%, and the potential upside is 9%.

Conglomerates/Infrastructure

AF Consortium was declared the winner of the PHP1.72b AFCS project.
The AFCS project will upgrade the LRT and MRT ticketing systems and allow seamless transfers.
It has the potential to expand to other transport modes and business applications.
Scheduled for use in 3Q15.

Telecom

PLDT plans to list PHP15b fixed-rate bonds in the PDEX.
The bonds are due in 2021 and 2024, with coupon rates of 5.225% and 5.281%, respectively.
Bonds will be payable quarterly.

Utilities Sector: Aboitiz Power Corp (AP)

What's New

Revised forecasts include:
- Unexpected spike in replacement power costs in 4Q13.
- Revised average power generation rates for 2014.
- Incremental earnings from new projects: Tudaya (14-MW), Sabangan (14-MW), and Davao coal (300-MW).

What's Our View

4Q13 profits are expected to be weaker due to unscheduled shutdowns at Pagbilao.
AP had to purchase replacement power at the spot market, which lowered profits.
2013 profit forecast is reduced by 3% to PHP19.72b.
2014 net income is estimated at PHP17.60b, a 11% YoY decline.
Earnings may recover in 2015 due to new projects.
Tax holidays for Pagbilao and Magat are expected to expire in 2014, further affecting profits.

Earnings and Valuations (Key Data)

Indicator	2011 (PHPm)	2012 (PHPm)	2013F (PHPm)	2014F (PHPm)	2015F (PHPm)
Sales	54,476	62,153	57,959	61,614	69,578
Pre-tax income	23,001	26,279	21,586	21,287	23,080
Adjusted net profit	21,105	23,702	19,720	17,601	19,492
EPS	2.87	3.22	2.68	2.39	2.65
EPS growth (%)	-13.6	12.3	-16.8	-10.7	10.7
PER	12.3	10.9	13.2	14.7	13.3
Yield (%)	3.7	3.7	4.7	4.1	4.1

Source: Aboitiz Power Corp, Maybank ATR Kim Eng Estimates

Earnings and Valuations Table (continued)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Rec	Year	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS (PHP)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/Share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Net Gearing (%)	ROA (%)
BDO	78.50	88.00	12	BUY	2012	13,953	4.46	13.6	17.4	1.20	3.7	42.29	1.9	1.2	11.5
BPI	88.40	96.00	9	HOLD	2013F	19,243	5.41	25.6	31.2	1.80	3.7	27.30	1.8	1.5	13.5
CHIB	58.40	57.75	-1	HOLD	2014F	19,780	5.52	-5.6	14.2	1.20	4.1	27.30	1.6	1.2	11.9
EW	25.10	31.80	27	BUY	2012	1,750	0.87	-18.4	13.1	0.62	2.7	6.74	3.3	46.2	7.0
MBT	75.80	96.00	27	BUY	2013F	16,177	5.89	40.4	13.4	1.80	3.2	39.08	1.9	1.2	13.5
PNB	83.95	111.00	32	BUY	2014F	16,213	5.91	0.2	14.2	1.20	2.0	48.34	1.6	1.2	11.9
RCB	22.50	35.20	56	BUY	2012	1,355	0.87	-18.4	13.1	0.62	2.7	6.74	3.3	46.2	7.0
URC	117.00	154.00	32	BUY	2013F	1,103	0.71	-18.4	31.7	0.53	2.4	7.11	3.2	49.3	5.2
PF	237.00	310.00	31	BUY	2014F	952	0.61	-13.7	36.8	0.45	2.0	7.14	2.3	55.8	4.2
DMPL	22.50	35.20	56	BUY	2012	426	4.26	9.1	5.5	2.90	12.4	12.93	1.8	-66.9	9.4
RRHI	58.95	77.50	31	BUY	2013F	492	1.88	-55.8	27.3	3.78	16.1	8.66	2.7	-39.7	9.6
CIC	23.45	36.50	56	BUY	2014F	592	2.26	20.2	10.4	0.56	2.4	10.36	2.3	-47.4	10.7

Source: Companydata, Maybank ATR Kim Eng Securities

Key Takeaways

AP's earnings are expected to recover in 2015 due to new power projects.
BPI and SECB are showing growth in corporate loans and deposits, respectively.
PLDT is expanding its financial offerings with the listing of fixed-rate bonds.
Manila Electric Co (MER) is experiencing a reduction in generation charges due to lower power costs.
Tax holidays expiring in 2014 are likely to reduce profits for utilities and banks.
Market valuations and price targets are adjusted based on updated forecasts and market conditions.