20150909-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_797kb

报告摘要

Daily Edge Summary - September 9, 2015

Core Content Overview

This document provides a financial update and market analysis for various sectors and companies in the Philippines, including the Power sector, Telcos, Conglomerates, Consumer Durables, and Property. It also includes analyst contacts and a detailed earnings and valuation table.

Main Market Highlights

PSEi Index: Closed at 6,891.30 with a -0.51% change.
Turnover: Increased by 16.53% to PHP4,734.76 million.
PLDT ADR (USD): Closed at USD50.19 with a -2.43% change.
PLDT ADR (PHP): Closed at PHP2,355.42 with a -2.41% change.
PHP/USD rate: Closed at 46.99 with a 0.16% increase.
Ave interbank rate: Closed at 2.53 with a -3.12 bps change.

Analysts

Head of Research / Economist: Luz Lorenzo
Contact: (632) 849 8836 | luz_lorenzo@maybank-atrke.com

Other analysts:

Ramon Adviento: (63) 28498845 | ramon_adviento@maybank-atrke.com
Michael Bengson: (63) 28498840 | michael_bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Rommel Rodrigo: (632) 849 8839 | rommel_rodrigo@maybank-atrke.com
Lovell Sarreal: (632) 849 8841 | lovell_sarreal@maybank-atrke.com
Katherine Tan: (632) 849 8843 | kat_tan@maybank-atrke.com

Top Idea: Power Sector

Core Content

Sector Rating: Neutral due to Hold ratings on Aboitiz Power (AP) and Manila Electric Co (MER).
Buy Ratings: SCC, FGEN, TA, and EDC.
Key Points:
- Companies with near-term capacity growth are preferred.
- SCC is expected to grow attributable capacity by 55% with a new coal-fired power plant.
- FGEN will expand attributable capacity by 23% with two natural gas plants.
- TA will end 2015 with 75% higher gross owned and contracted capacity.
- EDC is highlighted as the best way to play the renewable energy (RE) theme due to government incentives.

Market Talk

Telcos

Free Wi-Fi Service: The government plans to launch a nationwide free Wi-Fi service by 2016, targeting public schools, hospitals, airports, and parks.
Cost: PHP1.5 billion annually.
Coverage: Half of the country's towns and cities in 2015, full coverage by end-2016.
Speed: Capped at 256kb per second.
Smart and Uber Partnership: Smart Communications Inc (Smart) and Uber have launched a multiyear partnership for free in-car Wi-Fi, initially available in select Uber Black vehicles.
Promotion: Smart subscribers in Metro Manila can get two free Uber rides worth up to PHP300 each during September.
App Installation: The Uber app will be preinstalled on all smartphones with Smart postpaid subscriptions.

Conglomerates

San Miguel Corp (SMC): Court issued a 72-hour TRO in favor of SPPC, a subsidiary, against PSALM.
Impact: PSALM is prohibited from terminating the administration agreement and from disposing of payments from ANZ Bank.
TRO Details: Prevents PSALM from treating SPPC as in default and from collecting unpaid generation payments for Meralco nominations.

Consumer Durables

Car Sales: Rose by 21.3% in August to 23,181 units.
Passenger Cars: Up 29.2% to 10,334 units.
Commercial Vehicles: Up 15.5% to 12,847 units.
Year-to-Date Sales (8M15): Up 20.4% to 179,215 units.
Toyota Philippines: Leads with 41.7% market share.
GTCAP: Automotive subsidiary, with a BUY rating, reported a 15% increase in car sales to 9,655 units in August.
CAMPI Target: Aims for 310,000 units in FY15.

Property

FLI Wins Development Rights: For part of Clark Green City with a PHP160 million bid.
Joint Venture: With BCDA, 45% minority share.
Development Rights: Full rights over 288 hectares.
Project: Mixed-use development with ready infrastructure.

Earnings and Valuations Table (as of 8 September 2015)

Stock	Share Price (PHP)	Target Price (PHP)	Upside (%)	Rating	2014	Net Profit (PHPm)	EPS Growth (%)	PE (x)	DPS (PHP)	Yield (%)	BV/Share (PHP)	P/BV (x)	Net Gearing (%)	ROA (%)	ROE (%)
BDO	93.50	117.00	25	BUY	2014	22,466	6.27	0.9	14.9	2.10	2.2	48.56	1.9	1.3	13.5
BPI	84.00	94.00	12	HOLD	2014	18,039	4.62	(10.9)	18.2	0.91	1.1	36.64	2.3	1.4	14.5
CHIB	42.25	47.00	11	HOLD	2014	5,116	2.85	(5.9)	14.8	1.00	2.4	29.71	1.4	1.2	10.2
EW	20.05	27.00	35	BUY	2014	2,073	1.84	0.9	10.9	-	-	19.01	1.1	1.3	10.2
MBT	79.95	100.00	25	BUY	2014	19,614	7.15	(10.9)	11.2	1.00	1.3	50.49	1.6	1.3	13.8
PBB	18.60	19.00	2	HOLD	2014	4,735	1.11	(52.8)	22.5	-	-	2.70	1.1	0.9	6.9
PNB	56.90	77.00	35	HOLD	2014	5,359	4.34	(8.5)	13.1	-	-	66.02	0.9	0.9	6.1
RCB	32.75	55.00	68	BUY	2014	3,969	3.11	(8.1)	10.5	1.00	1.6	37.47	1.1	1.3	9.1
SECB	133.00	185.00	39	BUY	2014	7,164	11.88	4.6	4.5	1.3	1.2	7.04	4.6	4.1	14.4
VLL	5.70	8.40	47	BUY	2014	5,710	0.67	12.7	8.5	0.10	2.1	5.68	0.9	6.0	11.2