2025-06-12-Jefferies-5月全球航空货运量同比增长4_；中国_中国香港-美国货运量同比下降8_6页_95kb

Summary of Equity Research: USA Aerospace & Defense Electronics (June 13, 2025)

Overview

This report details the performance of the aerospace and defense electronics sector, focusing on air cargo volumes, rates, and market trends, with particular attention to the impact of US-China trade tensions and tariff uncertainties.

Key Findings

Air Cargo Volumes

• Global air cargo volumes increased by 4% year-over-year in May 2025, led by Asia Pacific (+7%) due to easing trade tensions, despite weekly declines of 8% year-over-year in China/HK-US lanes (though volumes improved from recent troughs).
• Regional growth: APAC (+7%), Europe (+4%), Central/South America (+3%), Africa (+2%), and North America (+1%).
• China/HK-US volumes were down 8% Y-o-Y but showed improvement from prior months' sharp declines.

Tariff Uncertainty

• Rising U.S.-China tariff tensions, potentially reaching a 55% total rate, continue to dampen demand and create volatility in the air cargo market, particularly in the Trans-Pacific lane.
• Short-term uncertainty affects importers/exporters, with current tariffs at 10% set to possibly rise.

Cargo Rates

• Average global air cargo rates declined 3% Y-o-Y in May, with significant year-over-year drops in regions like MESA (-14%), though spot rates in APAC and HK-US lanes showed weekly increases to $3.68/kg and $4.76/kg, respectively.

Cargo Flight Trends

• Cargo flights have steadily risen since the pandemic, with e-commerce driving demand and belly capacity shortages easing slightly.
• Total cargo flights in June 2025 reached 65K, up 43% vs. 2019 but below peak 2022 levels (down 3% Y-o-Y to 43% above 2019).
• North America saw a 11% Y-o-Y increase in scheduled cargo flights.

Analyst Notes

The report is authored by Jefferies equity analysts and associates, including Sheila Kahyaoglu, Greg Konrad, Kyle Wenclawiak, Conor Walters, Eegan McDermott, and Erica Reynolds. All views in the report are certified to reflect personal opinions and comply with ethical standards, with no ties to the firm's overall performance directly influencing recommendations.

Investment Insights

• Ratings: The report provides ratings such as Buy (for 15%+ total return), Hold (for returns between -10% and +15%), and Underperform (for -10% or lower returns) for select stocks.
• Valuation: Based on factors like market cap, growth, volatility, and methods including DCF and EV/EBITDA.
• Disclosures: Acknowledges potential conflicts of interest as Jefferies may do business with researched companies, and includes extensive legal and disclaimer information.

For detailed data and additional insights, refer to Exhibits 1 and 2 on cargo flight trends and the full report.