2025-02-16-牛津经济研究院-确保英国能够从量子计算中获益（英）_64页_6mb

Quantum Computing: Ensuring UK Benefits

Executive Summary

• Potential Economic Impact: Quantum computing could significantly boost the UK economy, with a potential 7% productivity increase by 2045, equivalent to £212 billion in Gross Value Added (GVA). Early adoption (2029) could increase productivity gains by up to 8% by 2040.
• UK Strengths: The UK leads in quantum start-ups in Europe, with nearly half of hardware firms originating from UK universities.
• Key Challenges: Funding gaps are a major issue; UK investment lags behind countries like the US and China. Quantum firms face difficulties scaling due to insufficient capital.

Introduction

• Quantum computing offers transformative potential across industries through advanced computational capabilities.
• The report underscores the strategic urgency for the UK to capture quantum advantages due to heightened global competition and national security implications.

Potential Benefits of Quantum Computing

• Economic Advantages: Quantum computing can drive productivity and efficiency across various sectors including finance, healthcare, logistics, and energy.
• Industry-Specific Gains: Expected productivity gains range from 5% to 54% by 2055, varying by sector. Pharmaceuticals and oil and gas are projected to see the highest gains.

The UK Quantum Industry

• Current Status: The UK houses the most quantum start-ups in Europe, many spun out from universities.
• Funding Issues: UK quantum firms struggle with access to sufficient capital, leading some to relocate abroad. Large technology firms like IBM and Google are significant players but focus primarily on providing platforms.

Funding Landscape

• Government Investment: The UK has invested £1 billion through the National Quantum Technologies Programme, but recent funding commitments are uncertain.
• International Comparisons: The US, China, and EU have significantly increased quantum funding, creating a competitive environment where the UK is trailing behind.

Economic Impact

• Current Contribution: The quantum sector contributes £135 million to UK GDP and employs 5,100 people directly.
• Future Projections: By 2055, the sector could contribute £4.3 billion to GDP and support 148,000 jobs, driving substantial economic growth.

Economic Benefits to End User Sectors

• Productivity Gains: Widespread adoption of quantum technologies could increase productivity by up to 33% in public administration and 54% in pharmaceuticals.
• Sector-Specific Opportunities: Applications include optimizing supply chains, accelerating drug discovery, and improving cybersecurity across various end-user industries.

Conclusion and Recommendations

• Strategic Imperatives: Immediate government and industry collaboration is crucial to maintain the UK’s position in quantum technology.
• Policy Recommendations:
  1. Increase public funding for quantum R&D and infrastructure.
  2. Facilitate partnerships between industry and government to drive commercialisation.
  3. Address the "valley of death" funding gap by providing targeted financial support.
  4. Enhance skills and management expertise within quantum research labs.
  5. Strengthen international collaboration to avoid isolation but carefully manage global partnerships.
  6. Develop innovative approaches to intellectual property management to foster innovation.