欧洲对外关系委员会-中国如何成为西方巴尔干半岛的大国（英文）-2021.2-27页_133kb

Summary of "DECADE OF PATIENCE: HOW CHINA BECAME A POWER IN THE BALKANS"

Core Content

This paper examines China's growing influence in the Western Balkans over the past decade, highlighting how the country has strategically embedded itself in the region's political, economic, and cultural spheres. Despite initial ambivalence from Western powers, China has gradually positioned itself as a significant actor through a combination of infrastructure investments, cultural outreach, media engagement, and academic partnerships.

Main Views

• China's Emerging Role: China is becoming a prominent third actor in the Western Balkans, leveraging its economic and political influence to gain strategic leverage.
• Strategic Ambiguity: While China's approach is not explicitly outlined as a formal strategy, its activities suggest a long-term, institutionalized plan to expand its presence.
• Geopolitical Ambivalence: The Western Balkans' ambiguous relationship with the EU and the US has created opportunities for China to fill the gap and offer alternative cooperation models.
• Multilayered Engagement: China employs a multi-level strategy, engaging with governments, institutions, media, and individuals across various sectors.
• Economic Dependency: China's infrastructure and investment projects are increasingly seen as a means to build dependency, with some states potentially facing debt-trap risks.

Key Information

1. Key Areas of Cooperation

• Political Engagement: China has built coalitions with ruling parties in the region, often through direct agreements and multilateral frameworks like the 17+1.
• Cultural Influence: China has expanded its cultural footprint through Confucius Institutes, cultural centers, and media activities. Events like the Chinese New Year celebrations and film screenings have increased public visibility.
• Media Control: China's media presence is growing, with state-controlled content and direct engagement with local journalists to shape narratives in its favor.
• Academic and Research Links: Chinese institutions are fostering academic and research partnerships, creating platforms for knowledge exchange and shaping local expertise.
• Infrastructure Development: China has invested heavily in infrastructure projects such as ports, highways, and power plants, often through opaque contracts and long-term financial commitments.

2. Investment, Trade, and Dependency

• Economic Integration: China is expanding its economic presence in the region, particularly in energy, infrastructure, and technology sectors.
• Debt and Leverage: Some Balkan states, such as Serbia, Bosnia, and Montenegro, have significant Chinese debt, which could give Beijing leverage over these countries.
• Strategic Assets: China's investments in key infrastructure projects may lead to control over strategic assets, such as ports and highways, if repayment issues arise.
• Private Sector Involvement: Chinese companies are increasingly involved in private sector activities, including manufacturing, technology, and construction, contributing to local economic growth and dependency.

3. How China Embeds Its Influence

• Multilevel Strategy: China uses a combination of bilateral, multilateral, and informal networks to embed its influence.
• Institutional Partnerships: Engagement with state institutions, local governments, and media organizations is central to its strategy.
• Soft Power Initiatives: Cultural and educational projects are used to build goodwill and long-term relationships with local populations.
• Public Relations: China's media and public diplomacy efforts aim to present itself as a cooperative and friendly power, enhancing its image in the region.

4. Networks of Influence

• Personal and Institutional Ties: China has developed extensive networks through personal relationships and institutional cooperation.
• Media and Information Control: Chinese embassies and media organizations supply content to local outlets, shaping public perception and supporting Chinese initiatives.
• Academic and Research Collaboration: Confucius Institutes and other academic programs are used to promote Chinese culture and create local expertise.

5. An Ecosystem of Shared Interests

• Legacy Contacts: China's historical ties with some Western Balkans countries, particularly those with communist pasts, provide a foundation for current engagement.
• Institutional Partnerships: China's cooperation with state institutions and governments is becoming more institutionalized and long-term.
• New Actors: A growing number of students, entrepreneurs, and local media are becoming part of this ecosystem, drawn by the opportunities and benefits of Chinese engagement.

6. Responsibilities of Power

• Growth of Influence: China's increasing influence is leading to greater scrutiny and challenges, especially as the region becomes more integrated with the EU and NATO.
• Dependency Risks: Some states may become increasingly dependent on China, potentially leading to political and economic consequences.
• Management of Crises: China must manage the risks associated with its growing influence, including environmental concerns and debt sustainability.

7. An Increasingly High-Profile Actor

• Ambiguous Image: China's image in the region is often portrayed as a humble and helpful global power, despite its opaque and strategic activities.
• Growing Scrutiny: As the region becomes more integrated with Western institutions, China's activities are coming under more public and political scrutiny.
• Strategic Posture: While China's engagement is not clearly defined as a strategy, its actions suggest a calculated and long-term approach to the Western Balkans.

Conclusion

China's influence in the Western Balkans is growing through a combination of economic investments, cultural outreach, media engagement, and institutional partnerships. While it does not yet have a fully articulated strategy, its actions indicate a long-term vision to establish itself as a key player in the region. This approach has been facilitated by the geopolitical ambivalence of Western Balkans states and their desire for economic development. As China continues to expand its presence, the region may find itself increasingly dependent on Beijing, raising concerns about the balance of power and the sustainability of such relationships.