欧洲对外关系委员会-雄心勃勃：埃及重返地区领导地位和欧洲应如何应对（英）-2021.10-20页_110kb

BURNING AMBITION: EGYPT'S REGIONAL REEMERGENCE AND EUROPEAN RESPONSE

Core Content

Egypt is reasserting itself as a regional leader after a decade of domestic instability. The country has regained a sense of confidence and is actively seeking to strengthen its foreign policy and regional influence. This shift is driven by improved domestic stability, economic recovery, and a more assertive stance in regional affairs, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa.

Main Points

• Regaining Regional Influence:
  Egypt is positioning itself as a key player in the Middle East and North Africa, leveraging its stability and economic prospects to re-engage with European partners and regional actors.

• Shift in Regional Alliances:
  Egypt has distanced itself from the anti-Islamist alliance led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and is now seeking closer ties with Qatar, Turkey, and other Islamist-friendly nations.

• Diplomatic Engagement with Qatar:
  The lifting of the blockade on Qatar in 2021 has allowed Egypt to restore relations with Doha. Cairo has also taken steps to ease restrictions on Qatari media and Islamist groups, signaling a more balanced approach.

• Egypt-UAE Decoupling:
  While Egypt and the UAE have shared ideological goals, there are growing policy differences, especially regarding Libya and the Horn of Africa. Egypt views the UAE as a potential spoiler in its regional strategy.

• Libya and Water Security:
  Egypt is actively involved in Libyan peace efforts and is concerned about the construction of the Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile, which could threaten its water security. It is seeking to reduce reliance on the UAE for regional security and is building alliances with Sudan and other African states.

• Syria and Iran:
  Egypt is playing a more active role in Syria, supporting President Assad and seeking to balance its relations with Iran, which it sees as a strategic partner due to its large Sunni population.

• Economic and Energy Ambitions:
  Egypt is capitalizing on its newly discovered offshore gas reserves and is developing renewable energy infrastructure. It aims to become a regional energy hub and is exploring partnerships with Europe, particularly through Cyprus, to expand its energy exports.

• Relations with the West:
  Despite criticism from the US and Europe over human rights and regional policies, Egypt remains a strategic partner for Western countries. The US, in particular, continues to provide military aid, though with increasing conditions related to human rights.

• EU's Role and Challenges:
  The EU has a complex relationship with Egypt, balancing its own policy priorities with the interests of individual member states. While the EU has occasionally taken a firm stance on Egypt's human rights record, it has also engaged in economic and security cooperation, particularly with France and Germany.

Key Information

• Domestic Stability: Egypt's government has improved security and economic conditions, which has bolstered its confidence in foreign policy.
• Regional Diplomacy: Egypt is re-engaging with former adversaries like Qatar and Turkey, and is seeking to influence regional dynamics in Libya and the Horn of Africa.
• Energy and Infrastructure: Egypt is developing its energy sector and positioning itself as a key regional energy supplier, especially to Europe.
• Human Rights and Western Relations: The EU and US are increasingly conditionally supportive of Egypt, especially in light of its human rights record and regional policies.
• Strategic Rebalancing: Egypt is rebalancing its alliances, moving away from the UAE and Saudi Arabia and toward a more diverse set of partners, including Arab and African nations.

Conclusion

Egypt's foreign policy is undergoing a significant transformation, with the country seeking to reclaim its historical role as a regional leader. This shift has implications for its relationships with the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, and Europe, as well as for the broader Middle East and North Africa region. Europeans should engage with Egypt strategically, balancing their core values with pragmatic interests, to ensure continued cooperation and mutual benefit.