IMF-汇款如何影响实际汇率_实证研究（英）-2025.6_35页_2mb

Remittances and Real Exchange Rate: Robust Effects

This paper examines how remittances impact the real effective exchange rate (REER), focusing on exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic structures.

Key Findings:

1. Exchange Rate Regimes:

• Flexible regimes show a positive correlation between remittances and REER overvaluation.
• Fixed regimes exhibit slower and smaller REER appreciation, consistent with Dutch disease concerns.

2. Macroeconomic Structure:

• Countries with low import-to-GDP ratios and high remittances-to-GDP ratios experience significant REER appreciation, regardless of the exchange rate regime.

3. Robustness:

• Results hold across different data sources, specifications, and sample sizes.
• High remittances increase REER, especially in countries importing less, due to demand shifts toward non-tradables.

Policy Implication: High remittance recipients should monitor REER trends and implement reforms to mitigate negative impacts on tradable goods competitiveness.