IMF-测试西非和中非的购买力平价（PPP）（英）-2025.6_46页_2mb

Summary of Testing Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in West and Central Africa

This study examines the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis in West and Central Africa, focusing on currency unions such as the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC), and Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The analysis employs various numeraire currencies, including the US dollar (USD), euro, renminbi (CNY), and CFA franc.

Key findings include stronger PPP evidence when using the euro as numeraire, driven by historical pegging in Francophone African countries. After the 1994 CFA franc devaluation, PPP holds more strongly across regions. The renminbi shows increasing importance, particularly for reversion speed in post-devaluation analyses. Cointegration tests reveal that PPP convergence primarily stems from adjustments in foreign prices rather than domestic prices. Panel data methods provide more consistent evidence of PPP compared to standard time-series techniques. Additionally, evidence is slightly stronger in the WAEMU sub-region than in CEMAC, possibly due to structural differences.

The paper underscores the significance of numeraire choice, post-devaluation dynamics, and the role of global trade shifts, especially with China. Policy implications suggest regional monetary frameworks should adapt to changing global currency importance and enhance domestic market flexibility for faster adjustment to shocks.

The results support weak-form PPP across most regions post-1994, contributing to discussions on optimal currency areas and informing policies for integration and stability in West and Central Africa.