2018年-尼尔森亚太地区_Keeping_Southeast_Asias_emerging_markets_on_the_radar_25页_7mb

报告摘要

RETHINKING ASEAN: A Summary

Core Content

This document presents a detailed analysis of the consumer market landscape in ASEAN, challenging common misconceptions about the region. It highlights the importance of sub-regional markets and provides insights into the future of consumer demand, distribution channels, and the relationship between income and product adoption.

Main Points

ASEAN Consumer Markets: ASEAN comprises 10 diverse countries with a combined population of 625 million. It is a significant economic entity, ranking as the sixth-largest economy and the second-largest destination for FDI globally.
Key Insight: The consumer market in ASEAN is not solely concentrated in mega-cities. Large middleweight regions (populations of 1–5 million) are crucial and represent more than 50% of the top 50 markets in several product categories.
Growth Trends:
- The Philippines has a larger share of demand in the top 50 markets than Indonesia in one third of the product categories.
- Growth rates can be more than seven times higher in some sub-regions compared to the national average.
- By 2030, modern trade channels are expected to account for only 23% of future growth in carbonated soft drinks.
Product Demand:
- Demand for chocolates is expected to grow almost twice as fast in large middleweight regions than in mega-cities.
- In many product categories, middleweight regions are experiencing the fastest growth.
Market Forecast:
- Some cities in ASEAN will have larger consumer demand growth than entire countries.
- The fastest growth in seven out of 10 product categories is likely to occur in middleweight regions.

Key Information

The 8 Myths and the Reality

Myth	Reality
1. Indonesia is the only market that really matters in ASEAN	The Philippines has a greater share of demand in the top 50 markets than Indonesia in one third of the product categories.
2. Consumer market growth doesn't vary much within countries	Growth rates can be more than seven times larger in some regions within a country than the national average.
3. ASEAN's mega-cities represent the largest consumer markets	Middleweight regions (1–5 million population) are significant and important for consumer demand.
4. The fastest consumer demand growth is happening in the mega-cities	The fastest growth is likely to occur in middleweight regions, not mega-cities.
5. Modern distribution channels only exist in the mega-cities	Middleweight regions also have high penetration of modern trade channels, with faster growth than mega-cities.
6. Income levels are a reliable gauge of consumer demand	The relationship between income and demand varies significantly across product categories.
7. The major markets in ASEAN won't change much by 2030	An increasing number of middleweight regions will represent the top markets by 2030.
8. Picking the right countries will lead to success in capturing future ASEAN consumer markets	Some cities in ASEAN will have larger consumer demand growth than entire countries.

Growth Drivers of Middleweight Regions

The growth in middleweight regions is driven by several key factors:

Cross-border Trade and Logistics: Proximity to major economies like India, China, and Japan, and the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) facilitating trade.
Economic Clusters: Export Processing Zones (EPZs), Special Economic Zones (SEZs), and BPO areas contribute to sub-regional growth.
Satellite Regions: Areas near mega-cities benefit from the urbanization and rising cost of living in these cities.
Natural Resources: Resource-rich regions benefit from the commodity super-cycle.
Tourism: Increased tourist arrivals, especially within ASEAN, have fueled demand in several regions.
Growing Consumer Base: Urbanization and economies of scale support growth in many sub-regions.

Distribution Channels

Modern Trade Channels: These include convenience stores, department stores, hypermarkets, supermarkets, and specialty stores.
Traditional Trade Channels: These consist of wet markets, street stalls, and individually owned shops.
Modern Trade Penetration: While lagging mega-cities, modern trade channels in middleweight regions are growing rapidly.
Future Projections: Traditional channels will remain important for future growth in middleweight regions, with modern trade capturing less than a quarter of the total demand.

Product Adoption Curve

S-Curve Model: The relationship between income and product adoption follows an S-curve pattern, with different "take-off" points across product categories.
Variation in Take-Off Points: For example, in Indonesia, 263 regions are in the "take-off" phase for instant noodles, while only 87 are for chocolate.
Importance of Understanding: The shape of the product adoption curve is critical for developing effective business strategies.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes the need to rethink traditional assumptions about ASEAN consumer markets. It suggests that middleweight regions, often overlooked, are key to future growth. Companies should not only focus on mega-cities but also consider the diverse and dynamic sub-regional markets. The analysis also underscores the importance of understanding the nuances of consumer behavior, distribution channels, and the economic drivers specific to each region.

展开完整摘要