20180706-NATIXIS-Will_global_liquidity_contract__6页_690kb

报告摘要

Flash Economics Summary

Core Content

This document discusses the potential contraction of global liquidity and its implications for financial markets. It highlights the current state of liquidity and the factors that may lead to its stagnation or decline, emphasizing the risks this poses in an environment of increasing uncertainty and risk aversion.

Main Views

Global Liquidity Trends: The global monetary base is currently growing, but the pace is slowing due to various central bank policies and economic conditions.
Risk Premia Increase: A slowdown or contraction in global liquidity is expected to widen risk premia across different asset classes, which could be concerning for investors.
Factors Affecting Liquidity:
- Reduction in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.
- End of quantitative easing in the euro zone.
- Slower asset purchases by the Bank of Japan.
- More restrictive monetary policy in the United Kingdom.
- Decline in China's foreign exchange reserves.
Emerging Market Reserves: The only remaining source of liquidity growth is the increase in foreign exchange reserves in emerging countries excluding China and in oil-exporting nations.
Outlook for Growth: The growth trend of the global monetary base is projected to reach 0% per year due to the above factors.
Double Shock Scenario: Financial markets are likely to face a double shock from rising uncertainty and risk aversion, combined with liquidity stagnation, leading to a significant increase in risk premia.

Key Information

Chart 1A and 1B: Show the Natixis risk perception index, indicating increased risk aversion.
Chart 2A to 2D: Illustrate the rise in risk premia across equities, corporate bonds, euro-zone peripheral bonds, and emerging-market bonds.
Chart 3: Displays the global monetary base, currently increasing rapidly but at a slowing rate.
Chart 4A to 4E: Highlights the impact of central bank policies and reserve changes on liquidity:
- Chart 4A: U.S. monetary base (Federal Reserve).
- Chart 4B: Euro zone monetary base (end of QE).
- Chart 4C: Japan's monetary base (slower asset purchases).
- Chart 4D: U.K. monetary base (more restrictive policy).
- Chart 4E: China's foreign exchange reserves (declining).
Chart 4F and 4G: Show the potential sources of liquidity from emerging markets (excluding China) and oil-exporting countries.
Conclusion: A contraction in global liquidity could significantly impact financial markets, especially in the context of heightened risk aversion.

Disclaimer Highlights

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Risk Factors and Rewards

The report reflects personal views of the authors and may differ from those of Natixis or its affiliates.
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