世界银行-社会流动性会影响经济发展吗使用不同流动性指标的跨国分析（英）-2025.2_50页_2mb

报告分析总结：Does Social Mobility Affect Economic Development?

This report explores the connection between intergenerational educational mobility and long-term economic growth across 68 countries over 2000-2020. Using data from the Life in Transition Survey (LiTS) and the Global Database on Intergenerational Mobility (GDIM), it analyzes this relationship through multiple mobility indicators including relative and absolute measures.

Key findings indicate:

• Directionality Varies by Region: In Europe and Central Asia, upward mobility in higher education (e.g., gaining tertiary education) shows a positive correlation with higher GDP. In Latin America, countries with higher absolute mobility tend to have higher incomes, while relative mobility is associated with lower income levels. Various regions show context-specific patterns (e.g., East Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa).
• Definitions Matter: Absolute mobility measures capture differences in educational achievement whereas relative measures measure persistence. Employing different measures yields conflicting regional patterns (e.g., in Europe & Central Asia, absolute mobility may decline temporally while relative does not).

A new oriented mobility measure—the upward mobility gap—was introduced. Results from various econometric tests, including sensitivity and Bayesian model averaging, show robust positive associations between upward mobility into higher education and GDP per capita in most regions except high-income countries. The findings suggest that the relationship between social mobility and development is context-specific.

The panel data analysis empirically demonstrates that rather than a universal correlation, varying regions exhibit distinct strengths and directions of association, calling for nuanced policy approaches consistent with local conditions.