麦肯锡-气候风险及应对：自然灾害和社会经济影响（英文）-2020.6-164页_3mb

Summary: Climate Risk and Response - Physical Hazards and Socioeconomic Impacts

Core Content

This report, published by the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) in January 2020, provides a comprehensive analysis of physical climate risk and its socioeconomic impacts over the next three decades. It highlights how climate change is altering the physical environment and, in turn, increasing risks to human societies, economies, and natural systems.

Main Themes

• Physical climate risk refers to the direct impacts of climate change on people, communities, natural and physical capital, and economic activity.
• The report examines both acute hazards (e.g., floods, hurricanes) and chronic hazards (e.g., drought, rising sea levels).
• It explores the implications of climate change for five key socioeconomic systems: livability and workability, food systems, physical assets, infrastructure services, and natural capital.
• The analysis is based on climate models and economic projections, using the RCP 8.5 scenario, which represents a high-emission, low-mitigation pathway.

Key Findings

• Climate change is already having substantial physical impacts in many regions, and these effects will grow in number and severity over the next three decades.
• Global temperatures have risen by about 1.1°C since the 1880s, with significant regional variations.
• The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves and floods are increasing.
• By 2030, all 105 countries assessed are expected to experience an increase in at least one of the six socioeconomic impact indicators.
• Lethal heat waves could affect 0.7 billion to 1.2 billion people by 2050, with 15–20% of annual outdoor working hours lost due to extreme heat and humidity.
• Land area classified into different biomes could shift by 45% compared to 1901–25, with major consequences for ecosystems and local livelihoods.
• Riverine flooding could damage $2–4 times more capital stock by 2050 than it does today.
• Lower-income regions are generally more vulnerable to climate impacts due to limited adaptive capacity, reliance on natural capital, and greater exposure to outdoor work.
• Climate change could benefit some countries, such as Canada, through improved crop yields.
• Adaptation is essential, but costly, and may require collective investment decisions on whether to adapt or retreat.
• Decarbonization is necessary to mitigate further warming and reduce climate risk.

Research Methodology

• The report uses a "micro-to-macro" approach, analyzing industry-level data to understand macroeconomic forces.
• It combines climate science and economic modeling, drawing on RCP 8.5 to simulate high-emission scenarios.
• A geospatial assessment was conducted across 105 countries to evaluate socioeconomic impacts using six indicators.
• Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC) provided scientific analyses of physical climate hazards, with independent review by Oxford University to ensure scientific integrity.

Collaboration and Support

• The report was developed through a year-long, cross-disciplinary effort at McKinsey & Company, involving MGI, Sustainability Practice, and Global Risk Practice.
• It was led by Jonathan Woetzel (Shanghai), Mekala Krishnan (Boston), and other senior McKinsey partners.
• A wide range of experts and institutions contributed, including climate scientists, economists, and industry professionals.
• Academic advisers and advisory council members provided insights and feedback to shape the research.

Implications for Decision Makers

• The report provides a framework and methodology to assess climate risks in a specific context.
• It aims to inform policy and business decisions by highlighting the magnitude and nature of physical risks.
• Financial markets could be affected by increased risk recognition, leading to capital reallocation and asset repricing.
• Insurance costs and availability may also be impacted by increased climate risk.

Conclusion

• Climate change is a fundamental driver of physical and socioeconomic risk.
• Systematic risk management and robust modeling are essential to understand and respond to these risks.
• Adaptation is critical, but only achievable through significant investment and policy changes.
• Decarbonization is the only way to halt further warming and reduce climate risk.

Key Statistics

• 0.7B–1.2B people could live in areas with a 14% annual likelihood of lethal heat waves by 2050.
• 10–20% of annual outdoor working hours could be lost to extreme heat and humidity by 2050.
• Land area classified into different biomes could shift by ~45% by 2050.
• Capital stock damage from riverine flooding could increase by $2–4 times by 2050.
• Flood damage in Ho Chi Minh City could rise from $200M–$300M today to $500M–$1B by 2050, with knock-on costs rising to $1.5B–$8.5B.

Authors and Contributors

• Authors: Jonathan Woetzel, Dickon Pinner, Hamid Samandari, Hauke Engel, Mekala Krishnan, Brodie Boland, Carter Powis
• Advisers: Dr. Richard N. Cooper, Dr. Cameron Hepburn, Hans-Helmut Kotz, Fu Chengyu, John Haley, Xue Lan, Xu Lin, Tracy Wolstencroft
• Contributors: AECOM, Arup, Asian Development Bank, Bristol City Council, CIMMYT, First Street Foundation, IFPRI, SYSTEMIQ, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, World Resources Institute, and many others

Appendices and Resources

• The report includes a glossary of terms and a technical appendix for detailed methodology.
• Additional resources are available on MGI's website at www.mckinsey.com/mgi.