2014年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Guinea_75页_1mb

Summary of the IMF Staff Report on Guinea-Bissau

Core Content

This document outlines the Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) for Guinea-Bissau, which was approved by the IMF in November 2014. The RCF is intended to support the country in addressing urgent balance of payments and fiscal financing needs for 2014 and to catalyze the resumption of donor support and the initiation of medium-term reforms. The report also includes a Staff Appraisal, Press Release, and a Statement by the Executive Director.

Main Policy Commitments

• Restoring fiscal discipline and normalizing government operations:

  • Adopt and publish a prudent budget for 2014 and prepare the 2015 budget.
  • Introduce a high-level treasury committee to enhance fiscal controls and prepare a monthly cash flow plan.

• Resuming fiscal structural reforms:

  • Strengthen tax and customs administration to improve tax revenues and streamline tax exemptions.
  • Implement measures to improve the efficiency of the customs system and reduce under-invoicing.

• Restoring conditions for sustained economic growth:

  • Prepare a medium-term country strategy, including improving the business environment, increasing financial deepening, and promoting the development of the cashew sector.

Key Issues

Context

• In 2012 and 2013, Guinea-Bissau experienced a severe balance of payments shock due to a 20% annual decline in cashew export prices, the main export product.
• A military coup in 2012 disrupted economic reforms and led to the suspension of donor support, increasing the country's external and fiscal pressures.
• The new democratically-elected government took office in July 2014, with strong international support to ensure peaceful elections.
• The fall in producer prices and regressive contributions to the FUNPI fund exacerbated poverty and led to a significant increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) in the banking system.
• Institutional capacity has been severely eroded over the years, requiring careful rebuilding.

Recent Economic Developments

• The new government has managed to eliminate all wage arrears accrued over the last year by using seasonal tax revenues and Treasury bill placements.
• The 2014 budget was approved and published, helping to control spending and restore fiscal discipline.
• External arrears remain at 0.6% of GDP, while non-wage arrears are estimated at CFAF 3 billion (0.6% of GDP).
• The government plans to eliminate all remaining arrears by the end of 2014.

Outlook

• The resumption of financial support from traditional development partners is critical for short- and medium-term poverty reduction and economic recovery.
• The 2014 real GDP growth is expected to be 2.5%, with inflation reaching 2.1% by year-end.
• Over the medium-term, real GDP growth is projected to stabilize at 4% annually, assuming continued donor support, political stability, and recovery in key sectors such as agriculture, mining, and fishing.
• Inflation is expected to converge towards 2.5%.
• The overall balance of payments should gradually improve, supported by FDI and donor support, although the current account is expected to deteriorate initially due to increased imports during the investment phase.

Debt Sustainability

• Guinea-Bissau remains at moderate risk of debt distress, but its debt indicators have improved significantly following HIPC and MDRI assistance.
• The updated Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) shows that debt indicators are below the indicative thresholds throughout the projection period.
• However, a large and protracted breach of the debt-to-exports threshold is expected in an export shock scenario, highlighting the need for prudent fiscal and debt management policies.

Structural Reforms

• The government has initiated several structural reforms to improve public financial management (PFM) and tax administration.
• Key reforms include the creation of a high-level treasury committee, the strengthening of the tax system, and the modernization of customs procedures.
• The SIGRHAP (payroll management system) is being completed and integrated with the financial module.
• The government is working to streamline tax exemptions, reduce fuel subsidies, and align reference prices with market prices.
• A Treasury Single Account is planned for the medium-term to improve cash management and budgetary controls.

Donor and External Support

• Traditional donors have started to reengage, and a donor roundtable is expected in the first half of 2015.
• The European Union pledged to resume support contingent on sound economic policies and the approval of the 2014 budget.
• The World Bank has committed US$81.3 million, with US$46.5 million yet to be disbursed.
• ECOWAS has committed US$64 million to security sector reform.
• The RCF disbursement will help close the 2014 financing gap and catalyze donor support.

Summary of Key Documents

• Staff Report: Prepared by the IMF staff team for the Executive Board's consideration.
• Informational Annex: Provides additional context and details.
• Debt Sustainability Analysis Update: Assesses the country's debt position and sustainability.
• Press Release: Includes a statement by the Chair of the Executive Board.
• Statement by the Executive Director: Highlights the IMF's role and support for Guinea-Bissau.

Conclusion

The RCF disbursement is a crucial step in restoring fiscal discipline, public financial management, and economic stability in Guinea-Bissau. The government is focusing on rebuilding institutional capacity, resuming fiscal reforms, and improving the business environment. With donor support and IMF assistance, the country aims to normalize its fiscal situation, reduce poverty, and achieve sustainable economic growth in the medium term.