20150922-Maybank_KERPL-Adhi_Karya_Light_at_the_end_of_the_tunnel_11页_587kb

报告摘要

Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ) Summary

Core Content

Adhi Karya (ADHI IJ) is a construction company in Indonesia with a current share price of IDR2,075 and a target price of IDR2,700, representing a 30% increase. The company's market capitalization is IDR3.7T, with an average daily turnover of USD3.8M. The stock is currently rated as "BUY" by Maybank, and the recommendation remains unchanged.

Main Points

LRT Project: Adhi Karya is set to construct a Light Rail Transport (LRT) project, with a total contract value of approximately IDR24t. The first phase (42.1km) is expected to be completed by 2018, and phase 2 (41.5km) will begin at the end of 2016.
Rights Issue: The company is close to completing an IDR2.7t rights issue, which is expected to lift the share price overhang. The proceeds will be used to fund LRT construction.
New Order Book: The new order book for FY15 has been raised to IDR23.4t, a 91% increase from previous assumptions, due to the inclusion of the LRT project. This is expected to drive more sustainable earnings growth.
Earnings Growth: Earnings are expected to grow by 25% YoY in FY15-16F and accelerate to 45.7% in FY17F, as a significant portion of LRT revenue is recognized in FY17F. However, EPS will be diluted by around 50% due to the rights issue.
Financial Position: Adhi Karya's financial structure is expected to strengthen over the next three years. The company will be in a net cash position in FY15, with a net debt/equity ratio of 21% in FY16F and 33.9% in FY17F.
Backlog: The company's backlog is expected to almost double in FY16, reaching IDR22.4t, which will improve its order book-to-revenue ratio to a five-year high of over 3x.
Share Price Performance: The stock has had a mixed performance, with a 1-month decline of 1.4%, a 3-month gain of 1.7%, and a 12-month decline of 30% compared to its 52-week high of IDR3,800 and low of IDR1,725.
Dividend Yield: The net dividend yield is expected to rise to 1.6% in FY17F, with a payout ratio of 13.1%.
Valuation Metrics: The core P/E ratio is expected to drop from 18.5 in FY15 to 8.3 in FY17F, and the P/BV ratio is expected to decrease from 1.5 to 1.2. The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decrease from 5.0 to 4.3.
Balance Sheet: Adhi Karya is expected to maintain a net cash position in FY15 and transition to a low net debt position in FY16 and FY17. The company may need to raise further capital post-2017 for LRT projects.

Key Information

Earnings Forecasts

FYE Dec (IDR b)	FY13A	FY14A	FY15E	FY16E	FY17E
Revenue	9,799.6	8,653.6	10,939.8	16,241.6	25,254.3
EBITDA	928.6	631.7	924.9	1,403.4	2,186.0
Core Net Profit	408.6	324.1	400.2	551.6	886.3
Core EPS (IDR)	227	180	112	155	249
Core EPS Growth (%)	93.1	(20.7)	(37.5)	37.9	60.7
Net DPS (IDR)	25	68	19	24	33
Core P/E (x)	9.1	11.5	18.5	13.4	8.3
P/BV (x)	2.4	2.1	1.5	1.4	1.2
Net Dividend Yield (%)	1.2	3.3	0.9	1.1	1.6
ROAE (%)	30.1	19.7	12.2	10.9	15.6
ROAA (%)	4.6	3.2	3.3	3.5	4.0
EV/EBITDA (x)	2.7	12.2	5.0	6.1	4.3
Net Debt/Equity (%)	net cash	83.6	net cash	21.0	33.9

Key Ratios

Metric	FY15E	FY16E	FY17E
Revenue Growth (%)	28.5	26.4	48.5
EBITDA Growth (%)	17.0	46.4	51.7
EBIT Growth (%)	15.9	37.3	51.9
Pretax Profit Growth (%)	69.4	23.0	44.7
Reported Net Profit Growth (%)	93.1	23.5	37.9
Core Net Profit Growth (%)	93.1	23.5	37.9
EBITDA Margin (%)	9.5	8.5	8.6
EBIT Margin (%)	9.4	8.2	8.4
Pretax Profit Margin (%)	7.3	6.7	6.5
Net Debt/Equity (%)	net cash	21.0	33.9
Net Interest Cover (x)	12.7	8.8	7.2
Debt/EBITDA (x)	1.8	2.1	2.5
Capex/Revenue (%)	1.0	2.3	3.2

Outlook

Adhi Karya's earnings profile is expected to improve significantly, with a focus on the LRT project. The company's financial structure is expected to strengthen, and the completion of the rights issue should alleviate the share price overhang. The company's order book is expected to provide more sustainable growth, and its financial performance is projected to improve with a higher core P/E ratio and a stronger dividend yield.

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