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Summary of Healthcare and Life Sciences Predictions 2020

Core Content

This report from the Deloitte Centre for Health Solutions presents a bold and provocative vision of the healthcare and life sciences landscape in 2020. It outlines key trends, challenges, and opportunities, emphasizing the transformation of patient engagement, digital healthcare, and the role of technology in shaping the future of medicine. The report includes ten predictions, each supported by detailed patient portraits and insights from industry professionals.

Main Predictions

1. Informed and Demanding Patients

• Patients are now active participants in their healthcare, using data and technology to manage their conditions and make informed decisions.
• They demand specific, effective treatments and are willing to pay for them.
• Healthcare organizations use social media and online communities to engage with patients and tailor services to their needs.

2. Digital Healthcare Transformation

• The healthcare delivery system is increasingly digitized, with virtual care becoming common.
• Telemedicine and remote monitoring are used to reduce travel and waiting times, and improve care efficiency.
• Robotic and enhanced surgical procedures are standard, using advanced technologies like 3D goggles and cloud-based AI systems.

3. Wearables and mHealth Integration

• Wearables are widely adopted and used for both personal health management and medical monitoring.
• These devices are not just for fitness enthusiasts but are integrated into clinical care, including disease management and prevention.
• The next generation of wearables is more interoperable, accurate, and outcomes-focused.

4. Patient-Centered Care Models

• The home is becoming a central location for healthcare delivery, especially for chronic and long-term conditions.
• Accountable care organizations manage defined patient populations, focusing on outcomes and cost efficiency.
• Patients have access to their own electronic health records and can share them with providers and researchers.

5. Pharmaceutical Industry Shift

• The pharmaceutical industry is shifting from volume-based to value-based models.
• Generic drugs are expected to take a larger share of the market, reaching 36% by 2017.
• New business models and partnerships are emerging, especially in developing markets.

6. Enhanced Patient Engagement

• Patients are more engaged with their health data, leading to better medication adherence and chronic disease management.
• The rise of patient advocacy and the "P4-Medicine" approach (Predictive, Preventative, Personalised, Participatory) is reshaping the healthcare landscape.

7. Regulatory and Technological Convergence

• Regulations reflect the integration of technology and science, supporting the use of digital tools in healthcare.
• Privacy concerns are managed through effective regulation and trust-building initiatives.

8. New Entrants and Innovation

• Retail clinics and new healthcare providers are transforming the industry by offering affordable, accessible care.
• Technology-driven models like Buurtzorg Nederland are redefining home healthcare delivery with cost efficiency and high patient satisfaction.

9. Clinical Trials and Patient Outcomes

• Clinical trials now incorporate wearables to track quality of life, not just efficacy and safety.
• These tools help in early disease detection and better treatment planning.

10. AI and Data-Driven Medicine

• AI systems are used to support diagnostics, drug interactions, and personalized treatment plans.
• These systems are becoming more accessible through cloud-based platforms like Watson.

Key Trends and Constraints

• Health Consumers: More informed and active, using digital tools to manage their health and demand personalized care.
• Healthcare Delivery Systems: Digitized and patient-centered, with a focus on telemedicine, remote monitoring, and home-based care.
• Wearables: Interoperable, affordable, and integrated into clinical workflows, providing continuous health monitoring.
• Pharmaceutical Industry: Shifting towards value-based models, with increased use of generics and digital tools for patient engagement.
• Regulatory Environment: Evolving to support new technologies and data sharing, while maintaining patient privacy and safety.
• Provider Models: Embracing new technologies and collaborative care models, including mutuals and accountable care organizations.
• Data Integration: Patients and clinicians now share and use data from multiple sources, including wearables and electronic health records.

Supporting Evidence and Examples

• By 2020, over 580 million people globally were aged 65 or above.
• Healthcare spending in developed markets remained high, while developing markets were projected to increase their share significantly.
• In 2013, there were 226 companion diagnostic deals in G7 markets, up from 8 in 2009.
• The pharmaceutical industry's spending was expected to increase to USD 1.61 trillion by 2018, with oncology as the main therapeutic area.
• The use of electronic health records (EHRs) doubled in the US from 8% to 16% in five years.
• Retail clinics, such as those operated by Walmart, are offering affordable and accessible care, often integrated with local health systems.
• Buurtzorg Nederland has reduced care hours per patient by 50% while improving quality and satisfaction.
• AI and cloud-based systems are being used to enhance diagnostics and support personalized care.

Conclusion

The report envisions a healthcare landscape in 2020 that is more patient-centered, data-driven, and technologically advanced. It highlights the need for bold strategies and collaboration across the health value chain to address challenges and leverage opportunities. The shift from traditional models to digital and integrated care systems is seen as a transformative force, with significant implications for both patients and providers.