20180809-兴业金融证券-Real_Estate__Contracted_Sales_Remain_Upbeat_9页_513kb
报告摘要
Real Estate Sector Summary (August 2018)
Core Content
This document provides an analysis of the Chinese real estate sector, focusing on contracted sales performance, sector valuation, and investment ratings for key developers. It highlights the resilience of contracted sales in July 2018 and anticipates continued growth in the second half of the year. The report also includes a peer comparison table and investment ratings guide.
Main Points
- Sector Outlook: The real estate sector is rated OVERWEIGHT, with the belief that the valuation remains attractive and that the longer-term investment appeal is not diminished.
- Contracted Sales:
- In July 2018, 19 developers (excluding Country Garden) reported 36.7% YoY growth in contracted sales value, locking in 58.3% of their sales targets.
- On a monthly basis, there was a 34.2% decline in contracted sales value and 34.7% decline in sales volume compared to June 2018, which is typical for the low season.
- Country Garden reported a 44.62% YoY increase in attributable contracted sales to CNY347.51bn for 7M18.
- Expected Growth in August:
- Contracted sales are expected to show accelerating growth in August, with a gradual recovery on a monthly basis.
- The main drivers for growth are the strong demand-supply imbalance and an increase in new launches.
- First Half of 2018 Performance:
- Developers like Country Garden, Evergrande, and CIFI Holdings reported positive profit alerts.
- The report suggests that developers under coverage are likely to report 35-40% YoY growth in core earnings for 1H18.
- Valuation Metrics:
- The sector is trading at 47% discount to NAV, which is still -0.5 SD from the 10-year historical mean.
- The report believes the sector is at a bargain level due to the buoyant earnings growth.
- Top Picks:
- Shimao Property, Country Garden, and CIFI are recommended due to their secular growth in property sales and manageable gearing.
Key Developers' Performance
| Developer | Stock Code | Contracted Sales (7M18) | YoY Growth (7M18) | Sales Target Lock-in (%) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China Vanke | 000002 CH | CNY349.8bn | 11.9% | N/A | |
| Evergrande | 3333 HK | CNY344.8bn | 19.6% | 62.7% | |
| Sunac | 1918 HK | CNY227.7bn | 73.9% | 50.6% | |
| Longfor | 960 HK | CNY114.3bn | 11.0% | 57.2% | |
| Shimao | 813 HK | CNY84.8bn | 65.2% | 60.6% | |
| Greentown | 3900 HK | CNY83.4bn | 18.3% | N/A | |
| China Jinmao | 817 HK | CNY78.9bn | 187.6% | 87.7% | |
| China Aoyuan | 3883 HK | CNY46.3bn | 143.1% | 63.4% | |
| KWG | 1813 HK | CNY37.7bn | 122.4% | 57.9% | |
| Central China | 832 HK | CNY27.6bn | 81.9% | 61.4% | |
| Yuexiu | 123 HK | CNY30.1bn | 39.1% | 54.8% | |
| Fantasia | 1777 HK | CNY12.8bn | 123.2% | 22.4% | |
| BCL | 2868 HK | CNY2.3bn | 7.6% | 22.0% |
Investment Ratings
| Company | Stock Code | Rating | Target Price (HKD) | Current Price (HKD) | ENAV (HKD) | ENAV Discount (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agile Property | 3383 HK | BUY | 20.00 | 11.36 | 34.00 | 67% |
| COGO | 81 HK | SELL | 2.30 | 2.61 | 6.60 | 60% |
| COLI | 688 HK | BUY | 36.60 | 23.15 | 43.00 | 46% |
| China Resources Land | 1109 HK | BUY | 31.50 | 27.45 | 42.00 | 35% |
| China South City | 1668 HK | BUY | 2.40 | 1.44 | 6.90 | 79% |
| CIFI Holdings | 884 HK | BUY | 7.80 | 4.35 | 10.40 | 58% |
| Country Garden | 2007 HK | BUY | 22.00 | 11.42 | 25.80 | 56% |
| Evergrande | 3333 HK | BUY | 31.70 | 24.90 | 42.20 | 41% |
| Shimao Property | 813 HK | BUY | 30.00 | 21.15 | 40.00 | 47% |
| Sunac | 1918 HK | NEUTRAL | 31.00 | 23.05 | 41.30 | 44% |
| KWG | 1813 HK | NEUTRAL | 10.00 | 8.44 | 22.30 | 62% |
| Longfor | 960 HK | BUY | 26.30 | 20.90 | 35.10 | 40% |
Sector Valuation
- The sector is trading at a 47% discount to NAV, still at -0.5 SD of its 10-year historical mean.
- The report believes the sector is at a bargain level due to the buoyant earnings growth.
- Shimao Property, Country Garden, and CIFI are highlighted for their secular growth and manageable gearing.
Peer Comparison
| Company | Stock Code | P/E (FY18F) | P/E (FY19F) | P/BV (FY18F) | P/BV (FY19F) | Div Yield (FY18F) | Div Yield (FY19F) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Peer Average | - | 43.8 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 21.1 | 24.6 | 19.8 | |
| Mid-and-Small Peer Average | - | 41.8 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 21.1 | 24.6 | 19.8 |
Investment Ratings Guide
- Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months.
- Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, but the longer-term outlook is uncertain.
- Neutral: Share price may fall within ±10% over the next 12 months.
- Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months.
- Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage.
Conclusion
The real estate sector is viewed positively, with contracted sales remaining resilient and a recovery expected in the second half of 2018. The sector valuation is seen as attractive, with a bargain level due to buoyant earnings growth. Developers like Shimao Property, Country Garden, and CIFI are highlighted for their strong performance and potential for growth. The report suggests focusing on refinancing abilities and contracted sales momentum during the upcoming interim results.
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