战略与国际研究中心-DPRK-Updates-Satellite-Launching-Station_1页_207kb

DPRK Updates Satellite Launching Station Summary

Core Content

On July 23, 2015, reports emerged from South Korean media indicating that North Korea had completed modifications to its Sohae Satellite Launching Station in North Myanmar Province. The updates were believed to be aimed at enhancing the capabilities of the facility, which is used for testing long-range ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles.

Main Points

• Location and Purpose:
  The Sohae Satellite Launching Station is situated near the northern border of North Korea with China. It is considered a key facility for both missile development and space launch programs, including research and development (R&D) and support infrastructure.

• Facility Upgrades:
  The modifications reportedly included:

  • An increase in the height of the launcher from 50 meters to an estimated 67 meters.
  • The construction of a new support building at the east end of the launch pad.
  • A new rail tunnel terminus.
  • A new platform that moves along rails from the support building to the launch pad.

• Enhanced Capabilities:
  With these upgrades, North Korea is expected to have the capacity to launch long-range missiles with an estimated range of 13,000 kilometers, significantly surpassing the Unha-3 rocket launched in 2012, which had a length of 30 meters. This suggests that the facility is being prepared for more advanced missile and satellite launches.

• Speculation on Launch Timing:
  Some analysts speculated that the upgrades might be related to a planned missile launch to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the Korean Workers' Party, which is scheduled for October 10, 2015.

• Historical Context:

  • Construction of the Sohae site began in 2001 and was reportedly completed by early 2011.
  • The first launch from the site took place on April 13, 2012, with the Unha-3 rocket carrying the Kwangmyongsong-3 satellite. However, this launch failed to reach orbit and resulted in debris in the West Sea.
  • A second Unha-3 rocket was launched on December 12, 2012, successfully placing the Kwangmyongsong-3 Unit 2 satellite into orbit.

Key Information

• The Sohae Satellite Launching Station has been a focal point for North Korea's missile and space development.
• The upgrades in 2015 are seen as part of a broader effort to enhance strategic capabilities.
• While South Korean media reported the modifications, the South Korean government has not officially confirmed these updates as of July 22, 2015.
• The Korean Workers' Party anniversary may serve as a potential trigger for a significant missile or satellite launch.

Additional Context

• The Korea Chair Snapshot is a product of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), offering nonpartisan and nonproprietary insights into current events related to North Korea.
• The document emphasizes the importance of monitoring such developments for understanding regional security dynamics and North Korea's strategic intentions.

Conclusion

The updates to the Sohae Satellite Launching Station highlight North Korea's ongoing advancements in missile and space technology. The enhanced infrastructure and speculated launch timing suggest a potential shift in the country's military and space capabilities, raising concerns about regional stability and international security. Continuous monitoring and analysis of such activities are crucial for policy-making and strategic preparedness.