20210909-IMF-Republic_of_Croatia_2021_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_Croatia_73页_3mb
报告摘要
Summary of the 2021 Article IV Consultation with Croatia
Core Content
The 2021 Article IV consultation with the Republic of Croatia, conducted by the IMF, assessed the country's economic performance and policy framework in the context of the pandemic and natural disasters. The consultation concluded that Croatia's economy, heavily reliant on tourism, experienced a significant contraction of 8.0 percent in real GDP growth in 2020, primarily due to the collapse in tourism receipts (down 60 percent year-on-year). However, the economy is projected to rebound with growth rates of 5.4 percent in 2021 and 5.8 percent in 2022, driven by a recovery in the services sector and increased investment, supported by fiscal and monetary policies as well as EU grants.
The inflation rate remained relatively low, with headline inflation at 2.0 percent year-on-year in June 2021, and core inflation hovering around 0.5 percent. The Croatian National Bank (CNB) played a critical role in stabilizing the financial system through monetary interventions, including currency market operations and bond purchases, which helped to calm markets. The CNB also maintained exchange rate stability and implemented regulatory easing measures aligned with the European Banking Authority (EBA) guidelines.
Main Views
- Economic Resilience and Recovery: Despite the severe impact of the pandemic and earthquakes, Croatia showed resilience, with a projected recovery in 2021 and 2022. The recovery is expected to be driven by the services sector and investment, especially with the support of EU funds.
- Fiscal Policy: The government's fiscal position was somewhat alleviated by EU funds, which financed most of the fiscal support measures. However, public debt increased significantly, reaching 88.7 percent of GDP in 2020. The authorities emphasized balancing short-term support with medium-term fiscal discipline.
- Structural Reforms: Directors called for accelerated implementation of structural reforms, particularly in public investment management, to enhance growth and reduce debt. These reforms are crucial for closing the income gap with the EU average and achieving decarbonization and digitalization goals.
- Monetary and Financial Policies: The CNB maintained an accommodative monetary stance within the exchange rate anchor and global liquidity, which was appropriate for the pandemic. Continued supervisory vigilance and efforts to improve debt restructuring were highlighted as important.
- Exchange Rate and ERM II Membership: Croatia joined ERM II in July 2020, a critical step toward euro adoption. The CNB and ECB also established close cooperation on banking supervision.
Key Information
Economic Indicators (2016–2026)
| Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | -8.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| Unemployment | 15.0% | 12.4% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% |
| CPI inflation (avg.) | -1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
| General government debt (GDP%) | 80.8% | 77.5% | 74.2% | 72.8% | 88.7% | 87.6% | 84.4% | 81.6% | 78.9% | 76.1% |
| Current account balance (GDP%) | 2.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 3.0% | -0.4% | -0.6% | -1.2% | -1.2% | -0.8% | -0.4% |
| Broad money (M4) | 4.7% | 2.1% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
Key Risks
- Short-Term Risks: Virus mutations could lead to significant economic scarring. The effectiveness of vaccination campaigns and the recovery of tourism are critical for a quicker rebound.
- Medium-Term Risks: If EU funds are not effectively absorbed or if reforms are delayed, growth could be substantially lower. Rising commodity prices and potential natural disasters related to climate change could also impact the economy.
- Fiscal Risks: Public and external debt remain sensitive to GDP growth and interest rate fluctuations. The structural deficit is estimated at 1.9 percent of GDP, excluding pandemic-related measures.
Policy Recommendations
- Rebuild Sustainable Tourism: Focus on affected businesses and workers, and promote green and digital transitions in tourism infrastructure.
- Fiscal Discipline: Resume the pre-pandemic downward trajectory of public debt and ensure effective absorption of EU funds and implementation of reforms.
- Structural Reforms: Improve public investment management and implement reforms to enhance productivity and efficiency.
- Monetary and Financial Stability: Continue supervisory vigilance and ensure macroprudential measures are in place to manage risks in the real estate market and credit developments.
Executive Board Statement
The Executive Board welcomed the swift measures taken to combat the pandemic and emphasized the importance of maintaining fiscal prudence and supporting the recovery. They also highlighted the need for continued structural reforms and improved governance in the financial and public sectors. The CNB's role in stabilizing the financial system and its cooperation with the ECB were acknowledged as positive steps.
Conclusion
The IMF concluded that Croatia's economy is on a path to recovery, with strong growth projected for 2021 and 2022. However, the country faces significant risks, particularly from the pandemic and the effective utilization of EU funds. Continued fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and monetary stability are essential for sustainable growth and debt reduction.
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