20211208-IMF-Republic_of_Palau_2021_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_the_Republic_of_Palau_76页_4mb

报告摘要

Overview: Palau's economy is heavily reliant on tourism, which contributed over 30% to GDP in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted this sector, leading to economic contraction.
COVID-19 Impact: Tourism-dependent sectors faced significant setbacks, with real GDP contracting by 9.7% in FY2020 and 17.1% in FY2021 due to border closures and reduced tourist arrivals.
Fiscal Policy Response: The government implemented a comprehensive stimulus package worth $20 million (7.8% of GDP) under the CROSS Act, funded by concessional loans from the Asian Development Bank (AsDB). Revenue measures include a 10% Palau Goods and Services Tax (PGST), expected to boost tax collections.
Economic Outlook: Recovery is projected from FY2022, with real GDP expected to rebound 9.4% in FY2022. However, challenges include a widening current account deficit and risks tied to Palau's graduation from OECD development assistance eligibility.
Risks: Economic scarring from COVID-19, climate change vulnerabilities, high public debt, and the need for fiscal consolidation to enhance resilience and address climate adaptation costs constitute key risks.
Conclusion: The IMF recommended continued fiscal adjustments, acceleration of infrastructure investments, diversification into eco-tourism and agriculture, and strengthening financial sector reforms to support sustainable growth.