2025-06-10-花旗集团-J.M.斯马克公司（SJM）_J.M._Smucker（SJM.N）_在股价经历历史性艰难一天后仍维持买入评级_17页_791kb

Citi Research: J.M. Smucker (SJM.N)

• Action: Buy
• Current Price: US$94.41
• Target Price: US$118.00 (down from US$128.00)
• Key Points:
  • SJM experienced its worst trading day in decades following a guidance update. The FY26 EPS estimate was lowered to $9.20 (from $10.26) driven by factors like Hostess challenges, coffee elasticity, and higher-than-anticipated SG&A costs.
  • Despite robust past guidance accuracy, SJM admits potential conservatism in the FY26 outlook, citing specific negative factors ($0.20 Headwinds from Hostess, ~$1.05 negative impact from coffee/other factors, etc.).
  • The company is strategically refocusing, particularly at Hostess, on innovation, core products, and rationalizing SKUs.
  • Growth Drivers: Strong double-digit growth at Uncrustables (now ~10% of sales), synergistic benefits from Hostess acquisition, planned debt reduction potentially improving multiples.
  • Valuation: Target price reflects a slight premium to current multiples but discounts historical averages. EV/EBITDA seems heavily weighted. Expected total return (25%) and dividend yield (4.7%) appear attractive relative to current price.
  • Risks: Execution risk remains high, earnings growth may not meet expectations, organic sales could disappoint.