战略与国际研究中心-Southeast-Asia-Bulletin-February-2009_5页_529kb

Summary of the SOUTHEAST ASIA BULLETIN (January 2009)

Core Content

The SOUTHEAST ASIA BULLETIN is a publication by the CSIS Southeast Asia Initiative, launched in January 2008 to enhance the focus and analysis of Southeast Asian affairs within the U.S. policy community. It serves as a platform for discussing key developments, events, and facts about the region, and features short essays by both official and unofficial commentators.

The bulletin also includes a Feature Article by Renato Cruz De Castro titled "The Long Wars of the Armed Forces of the Philippines", which examines the historical and ongoing involvement of the Philippine military in counterinsurgency conflicts. These conflicts, spanning four decades, are characterized as low-intensity and prolonged, with the AFP engaged in efforts to suppress both communist and Muslim separatist movements.

Main Points

Philippine Insurgencies

• The Communist Party-led National Democratic Front (NDF) and its armed wing, the New People's Army (NPA), and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and its successor, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), have been central to the Philippines' long-standing insurgencies.
• The MILF became more militant and religiously oriented, especially after splitting from the MNLF. It is accused of collaboration with transnational terrorist groups like Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and Abu Sayyaf, though it later distanced itself from these groups.
• Abu Sayyaf is known for its radical Islamic agenda and has engaged in numerous acts of violence, including bombings, kidnappings, and massacres. It has also formed links with international terrorist networks.

Military and Political Strategies

• The article emphasizes that military means alone are insufficient to end long wars. It argues that political pressure and addressing underlying socioeconomic grievances are more effective in achieving lasting peace.
• The communist movement is driven by socioeconomic inequality and economic underdevelopment, while Muslim separatist movements are fueled by land dispossession and misguided state policies.
• A highly militarized approach is likely to worsen the situation or cause insurgencies to evolve into different forms, as the root causes remain relative poverty, limited economic development, and sociopolitical divisions.

Key Events in January 2009

• January 9: Vietnam expressed concern over China's policy to develop and use Paracel and Spratley islands, highlighting unresolved maritime disputes.
• January 10: Thailand's Democrat Party-led coalition won key by-elections, reinforcing political stability under Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva.
• January 12: Indonesia and Australia signed a defense agreement to strengthen cooperation under the Lombok Treaty, focusing on counterterrorism, maritime security, and disaster relief.
• January 13: Amnesty International accused Thailand of systematic torture in its counterinsurgency efforts in the south. The government denied systematic abuse but acknowledged individual cases.
• January 15: Abu Sayyaf kidnapped three Red Cross workers in the Philippines, demanding the end of military action in Sulu province.
• January 20: Thailand and Cambodia agreed to resolve their border dispute through bilateral mechanisms, avoiding the ASEAN summit.
• January 22: China offered Indonesia a remote sensing satellite to improve maritime monitoring capabilities.
• January 23: MILF members were convicted for their role in the 2000 Manila train bombing, showing close ties with JI.
• January 24: Malaysia received its first Scorpène-class submarine, enhancing its maritime security.
• January 30: Thailand's opposition coalition (UDD) requested ASEAN to re-examine the legitimacy of the ruling government.

U.S. Engagement in the Region

• The U.S. Treasury Department imposed targeted sanctions on two Burmese businessmen under the JADE Act of 2008, accusing them of supporting the Burmese military junta.

Major Regional Developments

Rohingya Migrant Crisis

• The Thai military's treatment of Rohingya migrants sparked international outrage, with reports of torture and killings.
• The Rohingya, a Muslim group from Burma, are often classified as economic migrants by Thailand, despite being refugees by others.
• The Thai government claims it is only deporting these migrants and providing basic supplies, but the brutal actions have drawn global criticism.

Economic Impact of the Global Crisis

• Southeast Asia has been affected by the global economic downturn, but only Singapore officially entered recession.
• All major ASEAN economies introduced stimulus packages, with Philippines and Indonesia having the largest.
• Monetary policies were adjusted, including interest rate cuts in several countries.
• Despite reserves, reliance on exports makes the region vulnerable to global consumption declines and trade protectionism.

Miscellaneous Facts About the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP)

• The Philippine Army has 80,000 active soldiers and 60,000 part-time CAFGU members.
• The Philippines Air Force is primarily focused on internal security.
• The AFP has not purchased any military equipment from China, despite sending delegations to inspect its exports.
• The Philippines has 640 peacekeepers deployed to various UN missions.
• U.S. military assistance to the Philippines has increased significantly since 9/11, becoming the largest in East Asia and the Pacific.

CSIS Southeast Asia Initiative Team

• Derek Mitchell – Senior Fellow and Director
• Brian Harding – Research Associate
• Alyson Slack – Research Associate
• Lee Ridley – Research Assistant/Project Coordinator
• Nick Malouta, Nathan Eberhardt, and Haruna Minoura – Interns

This bulletin underscores the complex interplay between security, politics, and economics in Southeast Asia, while highlighting the U.S. role and regional dynamics.