2025-05-22-Jefferies-梅鲁斯（MRUS）_预览MRUS的5_22美国临床肿瘤学会（ASCO）电话会议——内部数据与股票预测_9页_610kb

Merus NV (MRUS) Equity Research Summary

• Rating: BUY
• Price Target: $87.00 (current $44.01 for 2025 prior close)
• Key Event: MRUS will host a conference call on May 22, 2025, to discuss new peto+pembro Phase II 1L HNSCC data presented at ASCO.
• Analyst View: High conviction in a "best-in-disease" approach (67% ORR @ASCO'24). Expects ASCO'25 data to show meaningful improvement over LEAP-010 (59% 12m OS) and KN048 (51% 12m OS), potentially derisking the ongoing Phase III trial (pivotal study).
• Focus in ASCO'25 Update:
  • 12-month OS comparison (~70% projected target by Jefferies for MRUS; significant improvement vs. ~59% LEAP-010 & ~51% KN048 expected).
  • 6-month Progression-Free Survival (PFS) update. (+60% for ORR overall pop, potentially 62.5-75% for HPV+ pts).
  • Confirmation of ~60% ORR in a larger population (n=45).
• Stock Scenarios:
  • Base Case: ~70% 12m OS, 55% 6m PFS (≈8mos mPFS), 60% ORR overall pop (+10-15% stock).
  • Bull Case: ~75% 12m OS, stronger PFS/ORR (+25% stock).
  • Bear Case: Mixed/missed data (-20% stock).
• Clinical Trial Status: Phase III trial for 1L HNSCC is on track to be substantially enrolled by end-2025. First-mover in the $2-$3B HNSCC space. Anticipated interim ORR data for potential accelerated approval mid-2026.
• Valuation: $87 PT based on Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model adjusted for probability. Risks include clinical efficacy, safety, and competition.
• Key Catalysts: ASCO 2025 presentation (May 22/June 1), upcoming Phase III interim ORR data (mid-2026), potential data readout (H2 2025).
• Competitor Analysis: Compares data from BCAX (2-yr OS expected range impact), emphasizing need for clear PFS data to complement ORR/OS results.
• Analyst Certifications: All Jefferies analysts certifying their views reflect personal views, not influenced by compensation linked to the buy rating.