2017年-世界发展银行全球_Firm_Dynamics_and_Job_Creation_in_the_Former_Yugoslav_Republic_of_Macedonia_49页_1mb

Summary of Firm Dynamics and Job Creation in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

Core Content

This report examines the dynamics of firm creation and job generation in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYR Macedonia), focusing on the role of the private sector in creating productive employment. It analyzes the structural transformation of the economy, the business environment, and the constraints that hinder firm growth and job creation. The report also highlights the importance of improving the investment climate and fostering entrepreneurship to enhance labor market outcomes.

Main Points

1. Job Creation and Productivity

• Productive employment is crucial for better jobs, but FYR Macedonia faces a shortage of such opportunities.
• Most employment is in small, less dynamic firms with limited growth potential.
• Job creation in the formal private sector declined during the economic crisis, particularly from young firms.
• Between 2007 and 2011, the formal private sector created only 12% of all new jobs.
• High job turnover (churning) indicates an incomplete transition to a more productive economic structure.
• More productive firms began to create jobs even during the crisis, suggesting a shift towards a more efficient firm structure.

2. Entrepreneurship

• Entrepreneurship is relatively low in FYR Macedonia and driven mainly by necessity rather than opportunity.
• Only 7% of adults were in established ownership in 2012, according to the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor.
• A significant share of wage-employed individuals express interest in self-employment, but few take action.
• Women and poorer workers are especially unlikely to become entrepreneurs.
• Access to credit and social networks are key factors influencing entrepreneurship, with women and poorer workers at a disadvantage.
• The country may be in a "low entrepreneurship trap" due to its small size and limited competitive industries.

3. Business Climate and Institutional Weakness

• FYR Macedonia has made steady improvements in its business environment, ranking 23rd out of 185 countries in the World Bank's Doing Business indicators by 2012.
• Despite these improvements, the private sector remains subdued, with limited job creation and growth.
• Weak institutions, particularly the judiciary, and lack of good governance are major obstacles.
• Corruption and distrust in the legal system are more significant problems in FYR Macedonia than in other ECA countries.
• Small firms are more vulnerable to institutional weaknesses, such as red tape, bribes, and slow court processes.

4. Constraints to Job Creation

• Credit constraints and skills shortages are critical barriers to business growth.
• Skills shortages affect more modern and dynamic firms, especially those in the services and export sectors.
• The domestic market is too small to support a significant level of job creation, especially for high-productivity sectors.
• The economy lacks critical mass in terms of products, services, and competencies, making it dependent on external markets.

5. Future Directions

• To create more and better jobs, the private sector must become more dynamic and competitive.
• Encouraging foreign direct investment and cross-border business ventures can help overcome the small domestic market limitation.
• Strengthening governance, particularly the judicial system, is essential for improving the business environment.
• Developing skills, especially for export-oriented and innovative firms, is crucial for long-term competitiveness.
• The report emphasizes the need for a demand-side focused analysis to guide policy decisions and support job creation.

Key Figures and Data

• Figure 1: Highlights the low access to employment in FYR Macedonia.
• Figure 2: Shows steady improvements in the business environment ranking.
• Figure 3: Depicts volatile growth and slow convergence with other economies.
• Figure 4: Indicates that self-employment may increase during the transition phase.
• Figure 5: Reveals that labor has not shifted into more productive work.
• Figure 6: Shows that informal work increased, not through self-employment.
• Figure 7: Links labor productivity growth to employment destruction.
• Figure 8: Demonstrates that most employment is in small and less dynamic firms.
• Figure 9: Suggests that more productive firms may face growth limits.
• Figure 10: Highlights the significant contribution of young firms to job creation.
• Figure 11: Shows high firm turnover compared to other European countries.
• Figure 12: Indicates a drop in firm creation during the crisis.
• Figure 13: Reveals that net job creation masks significant reallocation dynamics.
• Figure 14: Shows limited entrepreneurship, mainly necessity-driven.
• Figure 15: Indicates high latent entrepreneurship.
• Figure 16: Shows the percentage of people who took steps to open a business and succeeded.

Data Sources

• Labor Force Surveys (2007–2011)
• Enterprise Registry Data (2004–2011)
• Life in Transition Survey (2010)
• Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) (representative sample of 2,000 working adults)
• Global Competitiveness Index (World Economic Forum)
• Enterprise Surveys and Doing Business Indicators (World Bank)
• Transition Index (EBRD)

Conclusion

The report underscores that while FYR Macedonia has made progress in improving its business environment, the private sector has not yet become a strong engine for job creation and productivity. The transition to a market economy remains incomplete, with significant challenges in governance, access to credit, and skills development. To foster sustainable job creation, the country needs to address these constraints, promote entrepreneurship, and enhance the competitiveness of its firms, especially through international trade and investment.