2008年-世界发展银行全球_Bulgaria_-_Investment_Climate_Assessment___Volume_3_Technical_Appendices_74页_742kb

Bulgaria Investment Climate Assessment Summary

Core Content

This document is part of the Bulgaria Investment Climate Assessment, specifically Volume III: Technical Appendices, published in October 2008 by the World Bank's Finance and Private Sector Development Department in the Europe and Central Asia Region. It provides detailed technical analysis and methodology used to evaluate the investment climate in Bulgaria, focusing on firm productivity, technical efficiency, and the impact of various firm characteristics and investment climate variables on productivity.

Main Points

Technical Efficiency (TE) and Total Factor Productivity (TFP)

• Technical Efficiency is a measure that accounts for both labor and capital use to assess overall productivity.
• It is analogous to Total Factor Productivity (TFP), which represents output differences not explained by labor, capital, or other inputs.
• Firms with higher technical efficiency produce more output with fewer inputs.
• TE is calculated as a residual from a regression of the logarithm of output (value-added or revenue) on labor, capital, and other intermediate inputs.

Methodology

• The Cobb-Douglas Production Function is used to estimate TE:
  $$
  \ln(y_i) = \mu + \alpha \ln(k_i) + \beta \ln(l_i) + \varepsilon_i
  $$
• Unrestricted models allow for different production technologies across sectors, while restricted models assume identical technologies.
• Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) is used for estimation, but due to concerns about endogeneity and outliers, Least Absolute Deviations (LAD) and stochastic frontier analysis are also employed.
• The Levinsohn-Petrin estimator is used as a robustness check when lagged productivity data is not available.

Cross-Country Analysis

• Average technical efficiency levels are compared across Bulgaria and other comparator countries (Romania, Latvia, Lithuania, Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia, Estonia, Hungary, Slovenia).
• The results show that technical efficiency in Bulgaria is consistently lower than in most comparator countries.
• The correlation between different estimation methods is high (0.99 or higher), indicating consistent findings.

Key Findings

• ISO Certification is associated with a 19 to 34% increase in technical efficiency, suggesting that quality management systems contribute to productivity.
• Licensing foreign technology leads to a 40 to 60% increase in technical efficiency, highlighting the importance of technology transfer.
• Introducing new products within the last three years is linked to a 20 to 30% increase in technical efficiency, emphasizing the role of innovation.
• Age of the firm is positively correlated with technical efficiency. Firms that are 10 years old are about 13% more efficient than those that are 5 years old.

Methodological Issues

• Cross-country comparisons are affected by exchange rate fluctuations, as value-added and capital are measured in local currency.
• Capital measurement is more challenging than labor, leading to potential mismeasurement in TE.
• Endogeneity is a concern for investment climate variables, which are often correlated with productivity outcomes.
• To address this, region-industry averages are used as a proxy for endogenous variables.
• Omitted variables may affect the results, so a general-to-specific modeling approach is used to identify the most significant variables.

Firm Characteristics

• The analysis includes various firm-level characteristics such as:
  • ISO certification
  • Licensing foreign technology
  • Introducing new products
  • Being an exporter
  • Ownership (foreign, state)
  • Internet usage
  • Age of the firm
  • Capacity utilization
• Most variables are statistically significant in the unrestricted models, but some become insignificant when additional variables are included.
• Exporting is initially associated with higher efficiency but loses significance when other technology-related variables are controlled for, suggesting a potential correlation with these variables.

Key Information

• TE is calculated as a residual in a regression model, allowing for the assessment of productivity beyond capital and labor.
• Unrestricted models are preferred to account for sector-specific differences in production technology.
• Robustness checks are performed using multiple estimation techniques (OLS, LAD, stochastic frontier, and Levinsohn-Petrin estimator).
• Investment climate variables are not pooled with data from other countries due to concerns about endogeneity and the lack of detailed productivity data in comparator countries.
• Technical efficiency is presented as a percentage relative to Bulgaria, with results indicating that Bulgaria's firms are less efficient than most of its neighbors.

Summary of Results

Notes:

• ***** indicates statistical significance at the 1% level.
• **** indicates significance at the 5% level.
• *** indicates significance at the 10% level.

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of technical efficiency in assessing the investment climate and highlights that Bulgaria's firms are generally less efficient compared to other countries in the region. It also identifies key factors such as ISO certification, licensing foreign technology, and firm age as significant contributors to productivity. The methodology used is robust, employing multiple econometric techniques to ensure reliability and consistency in the findings.