2008年-世界发展银行全球_Bulgaria_-_Investment_Climate_Assessment___Volume_2_Detailed_Report_250页_1mb

Bulgaria Investment Climate Assessment Summary

Core Content

The Bulgaria Investment Climate Assessment (ICA) is a comprehensive report analyzing the investment climate in Bulgaria, focusing on macroeconomic background, firm productivity, innovation and technology absorption, standards and quality, perceptions of the investment climate, regulation and taxation, labor markets, and access to finance. It is part of a three-volume series and was prepared as a joint project of the World Bank and the Ministry of Economy and Energy.

The report is based on a firm survey, data from the World Bank's Doing Business Report, National Statistical Institute (NSI), and Government of Bulgaria sources, along with in-depth interviews with policymakers, academics, and experts. The goal is to evaluate the investment climate in Bulgaria and provide policy recommendations to strengthen the private sector.

Main Views and Key Information

Macroeconomic Background

• Currency Board Arrangement (CBA): Implemented in 1997 after a banking and currency crisis, the Lev was pegged to the Deutsche Mark, which significantly reduced inflation from over 1,000% in 1997 to 3% by 1999.
• Inflation: Remained moderate until 2007 and early 2008, when it increased.
• GDP Growth: Bulgaria experienced strong GDP growth, although its initial income level was lower than other countries, offering potential for convergence.
• Investment: Gross fixed domestic investment increased significantly, but remained in line with other recent EU accession countries. The service sector dominated fixed investment in 2007, with manufacturing accounting for only 20%.
• Current Account Deficit: High, similar to other recent EU accession countries.

Firm Productivity

• Labor Productivity: Lower in manufacturing compared to other EU entrants.
• Labor Costs: Lower for manufacturing firms.
• Technical Efficiency: Lower than other EU accession countries.
• Innovation and Productivity: Innovative firms in Bulgaria are more productive than non-innovative ones.

Innovation & Technology Absorption

• National Innovation System: Coordination is weak, and performance is low.
• Innovation Activities: Only a few Bulgarian firms are innovative, and innovative firms are less likely to receive government funding.
• Technology Adoption: Few foreign technologies are licensed, but there is a slow trend of catch-up.
• R&D Investment: Bulgaria invests too little in R&D to narrow the technology gap with the EU.
• Patents: Few patents are granted, and the number of R&D personnel is low.
• Soft and Hard Infrastructure: Limited support for innovation and knowledge transfer, including weak enforcement of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR).

Standards and Quality

• National Quality Infrastructure (NQI): Includes standards, accreditation, metrology, and conformity assessment.
• Certification: Increasing rapidly, but small firms have lower certification rates.
• Accreditation: The national accreditation body has an adequate number of staff but limited private sector representation.
• Metrology: The national metrology institute has a large number of staff, but they are underutilized. It provides few calibration and training services.
• Standardization: Bulgaria has a large standards catalogue, mostly regional standards, and is a member of most international standards bodies.

Perceptions about the Investment Climate

• Main Concerns: Corruption, instability, competition with informal firms, and worker skills and education.
• Comparisons with Previous Surveys: Concerns about tax rates, regulatory uncertainty, and cost of financing have been persistent.
• Firm Size and Sector: Small firms and those in the IT sector are more concerned about access to finance and competition with informal firms.

Regulation and Taxation

• Regulatory Regimes: Administered in a way that is less favorable compared to other new EU entrants.
• Rule of Law: Bulgaria compares unfavorably with other new EU entrants.
• Taxation: Large firms and foreign-owned firms face more tax inspections.
• Predictability of Laws: Firms are concerned about the predictability and consistency of how laws and regulations are interpreted.

Labor Markets

• Employment and Unemployment: Unemployment rates vary by age group and gender.
• Worker Skills: A significant concern, especially in the IT sector and some manufacturing sub-sectors.
• Labor Regulation: More rigid than in other EU countries, affecting labor flexibility.
• Training: Bulgarian firms are less likely to provide training than firms in other new EU entrants, but larger firms and more innovative firms are more likely to do so.
• Part-Time Employment: Less common in Bulgaria compared to other EU countries.

Access to Finance

• Credit to the Private Sector: Higher than in many other recent EU entrants, but still limited for small firms.
• Access to Credit: Many firms without loans do not report access to credit as a problem, often because they do not need it.
• Borrowing Rates: Lower than in other new EU member states.
• Financial Sector: Has improved access to long-term credit since 1998.
• Institutional Environment: Bulgaria stands fairly well in terms of "getting credit" indexes compared to other countries.

Policy Recommendations

• Strengthen the Rule of Law and improve the predictability and consistency of legal interpretation.
• Enhance IPR enforcement to support innovation.
• Improve labor market flexibility and provide more training opportunities.
• Increase R&D investment to close the technology gap with the EU.
• Support small firms with better access to finance and reduce the early-stage funding gap.
• Improve coordination within the national innovation system.
• Enhance the quality infrastructure by increasing the number of system certification laboratories and improving the efficiency of the accreditation process.
• Promote standardization and international integration to support trade and competitiveness.
• Reduce the regulatory burden and streamline business registration and licensing procedures.
• Improve the efficiency of the financial sector to support innovation and investment.

Summary Matrix for Policy Recommendations

The report includes a summary matrix that outlines the key policy recommendations across various sectors, including regulation, taxation, labor markets, access to finance, innovation, and standards. These recommendations are aimed at improving the investment climate and fostering sustainable economic growth.

References and Support

• The report was supported by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), European Union (EU), and Bulgarian Government.
• In-depth interviews with policymakers, think tanks, and experts contributed to the understanding of the policy environment.
• The National Statistical Institute (NSI) provided a firm-level dataset in a short time.
• The translator, Simeon Enchev, played a crucial role in preparing the Bulgarian version of the report.

Conclusion

The Bulgaria Investment Climate Assessment highlights the need for reforms in several areas, including regulation, taxation, labor markets, access to finance, innovation, and standards. These reforms are essential for improving the investment climate and promoting sustainable economic growth.