2023-07-06-莱坊-Retail_Investment_Update_H1_2023_9页_3mb

报告摘要

Retail investments showed strong performance in H1 2023, with traditional real estate subsector achieving a total return of +4.10%, making it the best performer.
Foodstore market experienced significant growth, with transaction volumes of £1.07 billion, up 255% compared to H1 2022.
Overall retail transaction volumes totaled £2.89 billion, but this masked weakening in most subsectors due to low stock levels and increased vacancy.
Key factors include rising inflation, interest rates, and consumer pressures, yet retail sales values increased by 5.60% year-on-year in Q1 2023.
Institutional and private investors drove demand, with different segments targeting prime vs. secondary assets based on yield expectations.
High Street and Shopping Centre sectors faced liquidity challenges, with most transactions occurring at small lot sizes below £15 million.
Forward-looking trends indicate polarised markets, with prime assets attracting premium yields due to economic uncertainties.

Retail: +4.10% total return, supported by improved rents and institutional activity.
Foodstores: High demand with £1.07 billion in transactions; prime yields increased to 5.00% NIY.
Shopping Centres: Weaker performance relative to other sectors; average yields stabilizing but volumes down.
High Street: Resilient in core areas; yields rebased by 250bps; supply constraints ongoing.

Investors are divided: institutional funds seek 'best in class' assets with ESG focus; middle-money targets 7.50%+ yields; leveraged buyers need yields >8.50%.
Foodstore and Retail Warehouse sectors remain strong, with transactions influenced by tenant curation and market resilience amid inflation.
Outlet and In-Town markets benefit from curtailed consumer spending; rental growth is noted in prime locations.
Low inventory levels hinder increased trading across sectors, particularly in less attractive geographies.

Deal volumes expected to remain subdued in 2023 due to persistent economic headwinds and high debt costs.
Prices may continue to fluctuate, with opportunities in secondary assets offset by volatility.
Resilience in food retail and warehousing could drive longer-term investment, but challenges like rising capital costs persist.

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