2017年-普华永道全球_What_a_US_infrastructure_stimulus_could_mean_for_the_industrial_sector_22页_1mb

Summary of US Industrial Products and Infrastructure Stimulus

Core Content

The document explores the potential impact of a $1 trillion US infrastructure stimulus plan on the industrial sector, emphasizing the importance of understanding the scope, funding sources, and priorities of such an initiative. It outlines the current state of US infrastructure, the political support for the stimulus, and the implications for industrial companies, particularly in engineering, construction, and manufacturing.

Main Points

1. Infrastructure Investment Gap

• The US has a significant infrastructure investment gap, with an estimated $3.3 trillion needed to maintain, repair, and build new infrastructure by 2025.
• A $1.4 trillion funding gap is expected if current trends continue, which could result in a $3.9 trillion GDP loss and 2.5 million job losses.
• The Department of Transportation estimates a $836 billion backlog in highway and bridge maintenance needs, requiring $142 billion annually in transportation spending over the next two decades.

2. Political Support and Plans

• President Trump's administration supports a $1 trillion infrastructure plan, emphasizing "Buy American" and "Hire American" principles.
• Senate Democrats have also proposed a $1 trillion plan, focusing on transportation, water, and broadband, with an estimated 15 million jobs created.
• Both parties agree on the need for infrastructure investment but differ in funding approaches—Republicans favor deficit-neutral financing, while Democrats lean toward debt financing and an infrastructure bank.

3. Impact on Industrial Sector

• The industrial sector is expected to benefit significantly from infrastructure spending, especially engineering and construction, steel, heavy machinery, and chemicals.
• The stimulus could accelerate the adoption of advanced technologies such as robotics, 3D printing, and the Internet of Things (IoT), which are key to future-proofing infrastructure.

4. Economic Impact of Infrastructure Investment

• Studies suggest that infrastructure investment can have a strong economic multiplier effect, with estimates ranging from $1.50 to $3.54 GDP growth per $1 invested.
• Job creation estimates vary from 9,386 jobs per $1 billion invested to 11.4 million jobs over 10 years.
• The 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) had a measurable impact, boosting GDP and employment, though its effects were temporary.

5. Public-Private Partnerships (P3s)

• P3s are seen as a potential avenue for private investment in infrastructure, offering efficiency and cost savings.
• The US has a lower level of P3 activity compared to countries like the UK, but there is growing interest in social and non-traditional infrastructure.
• The government has already taken steps to support P3s through initiatives like the Build America Bureau, FAST, and WIFIA.

Key Information

• Current Infrastructure Quality: The US ranks 12th globally in infrastructure quality, with notable weaknesses in areas such as roads, railroads, and air transport.
• Funding Sources: Uncertainty remains about how the stimulus will be funded, with options including tax credits, repatriation of foreign earnings, and public-private partnerships.
• Private Investment Challenges: Private investors are hesitant due to the lack of attractive returns on public infrastructure, with an estimated $75 billion in "dry powder" available for North American infrastructure.
• Workforce Transformation: The shift toward automation and advanced manufacturing means job numbers are less indicative of sector health than the quality and nature of jobs.
• Opportunities for Industrial Companies: Companies should prepare for increased demand, consider becoming investors in P3s, and align with government priorities to position themselves for long-term gains.

Recommendations

• Strategic Positioning: Industrial products companies should engage early with state and local governments to be considered as vendors and planners.
• Investment in P3s: Larger companies with investment capabilities should explore opportunities in public-private partnerships to diversify revenue streams.
• Focus on Advanced Technologies: Companies should prioritize investments in technologies that enhance productivity and enable smart infrastructure development.
• Workforce Development: Emphasize upskilling and retraining to adapt to the evolving nature of industrial jobs, including IT and data science roles.

Conclusion

An infrastructure stimulus offers significant potential for boosting economic growth, creating jobs, and enhancing the competitiveness of the US industrial sector. While the exact structure and funding mechanisms are still under debate, the focus should be on long-term productivity, sustainability, and the integration of advanced technologies. Industrial companies are well-positioned to benefit from this initiative and should proactively prepare for its impact.