2016年-世界发展银行全球_Bangladesh_Development_Update_October_2016___Sustained_Development_Progress_71页_1mb

Bangladesh Development Update Summary

Core Content

This Bangladesh Development Update (October 2016) provides an overview of the country's economic performance, structural reforms, and policy challenges, with a special focus on poverty reduction and the introduction of carbon taxation. The report is prepared by the World Bank and aims to inform the Government of Bangladesh, researchers, and the public about the current state of the economy, its outlook, and the key risks and opportunities.

Main Points

1. Poverty Trends and Shared Prosperity

• The report uses the international extreme poverty line of $1.90 per person per day (2011 PPP) to revise poverty estimates for Bangladesh.
• The revised poverty rate for 2010 is 18.5%, corresponding to 28 million people, which is significantly lower than the 43.3% under the $1.25 per day (2005 PPP) line, representing 65.6 million people.
• The Shared Prosperity Premium indicates that the poorest 40% of Bangladesh's population saw higher consumption growth than the average, outperforming many South Asian countries but lagging behind East Asian ones like China, Vietnam, and Cambodia.
• Ending extreme poverty by 2030 could be achieved either by accelerating GDP growth to 9% per year or by making current growth more inclusive.

2. Recent Economic Developments

• GDP growth in FY16 was estimated at 7.05%, slightly below the 8% growth target.
• Agricultural growth was 2.6%, driven by non-crop agriculture, while industrial growth reached 10.1%.
• Services sector growth increased from 5.8% in FY15 to 6.7% in FY16, due to public sector wage increases.
• RMG exports rebounded, especially to the US and EU, but the export basket remains RMG-dominated.
• Remittances declined in FY16, mainly due to a drop in inflows from GCC countries, despite an increase in the number of Bangladeshi workers abroad.
• Inflation slowed to 5.9% in FY16, the lowest in 12 years, but remained relatively high compared to global levels.
• Food inflation decreased to 4.9%, but non-food inflation rose to 7.5%, driven by public sector wage increases, energy tariffs, and private sector credit expansion.

3. Structural Reforms

• Progress on structural reforms has been uneven.
• Positive developments include the introduction of a new mechanism for interest rate review and the approval of a new power bill to enable an independent system operator.
• The implementation of the new VAT and Supplementary Duty Act 2012 was delayed until July 2017.

4. Outlook and Risks

• The near- and medium-term outlook is stable, driven by exports and domestic demand, and supported by prudent macroeconomic policies.
• Real GDP growth for FY17 is projected at 6.8%, slightly lower than FY16.
• Key risks include domestic (reforms, security, financial and trade shocks) and external (global trade slowdown, tighter financing conditions, and potential remittance slowdowns due to GCC fiscal consolidation).

5. Policy Responses

• The focus is on boosting productivity, private investment, and financial intermediation efficiency.
• The report suggests that expansionary macroeconomic policies are limited due to supply-side constraints.
• Infrastructure, energy, and human capital investments are crucial for long-term growth.
• Fiscal vulnerability needs to be addressed, with a carbon tax recommended as a positive step toward environmentally sustainable development.

Key Information

• The World Bank updated poverty estimates using 2011 PPP, which showed a much stronger purchasing power of the Bangladeshi taka relative to the US dollar.
• The real exchange rate of the taka has appreciated against major currencies, including the euro, pound, rupees of India and Pakistan, and the yuan, which could affect export competitiveness.
• Bangladesh Bank has maintained exchange rate stability, but real appreciation has occurred due to inflation differentials.
• Fiscal deficit increased due to a revenue shortfall, with domestic financing nearly doubling and reliance on non-bank sources.
• Ease of doing business has improved slowly, with inadequate infrastructure, financial intermediation, bureaucratic inertia, and corruption still limiting investment.
• The new poverty line is closer to the government's Lower Poverty Line (LPL), indicating better convergence in poverty measurement.

Conclusion

Bangladesh has made significant progress in reducing extreme poverty, but sustaining this trend requires inclusive growth, fiscal discipline, and structural reforms. The report emphasizes the need to address energy and infrastructure bottlenecks, enhance financial sector efficiency, and consider carbon taxation as a step toward environmental sustainability and economic resilience.