2016-06-07-德勤-德勤2016生命科学行业展望_28页_2mb

Deloitte 2016 Global Life Sciences Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2016 Deloitte Global Life Sciences Outlook highlights the industry's mixed performance in a volatile and uncertain economic environment. The report outlines key trends, challenges, and opportunities across the pharma, biotech, medtech, and wholesale/distribution segments, while emphasizing the need for companies to adopt cautious optimism and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Main Trends and Opportunities

1. Pharma Segment

• Global Sales: Expected to decline by 2.7% in 2015 but grow at an average of 4.3% from 2015 to 2019, reaching $1.4 trillion by 2019.
• Challenges:
  • Pricing pressures in the U.S. and economic instability in Brazil, Russia, and China.
  • Government cost-cutting measures, including price controls and value-based pricing.
• Opportunities:
  • Aging populations, chronic diseases, and innovative treatments (e.g., for cancer and Hepatitis C) will drive increased spending.
  • The patent cliff is easing, though R&D productivity remains a concern.
  • Consolidation is likely due to cost and pricing pressures.
• Adaptation: Companies are transforming portfolios, focusing on high-performing therapeutic areas, and exploring new business models aligned with value-based care.

2. Biotech Segment

• Global Sales: Projected to grow from $289 billion in 2014 to $445 billion by 2019, increasing its share of global prescription drug and OTC sales from 23% to 26%.
• Key Products: Monoclonal antibodies, recombinant products, and treatments for rheumatoid arthritis, Hepatitis C, and cancer are leading sales.
• Challenges:
  • High costs of biotech drugs may challenge affordability in many countries.
  • Approval processes can be slow and complex.
• Opportunities:
  • Biosimilars are expected to grow rapidly, with the market projected to reach $25–35 billion by 2020.
  • Regulatory changes in Europe and the U.S. are creating new pathways for biosimilar approvals and reimbursement.
  • Emerging markets may see increased use of biologics due to rising middle-class populations and limited access to affordable treatments.

3. Medical Technology (Medtech) Segment

• Global Sales: Expected to grow from $369 billion in 2015 to $454 billion in 2019, at an average annual rate of 4.1%.
• Key Segments:
  • In vitro diagnostics (IVD) remains the largest segment, growing at 5.1% CAGR.
  • Neurology is the fastest-growing segment, with a 6.9% CAGR.
• Challenges:
  • Regulatory complexity and cost pressures.
  • Emerging markets may see medtech becoming commoditized, leading to increased competition and lower margins.
• Opportunities:
  • Smart devices like the artificial pancreas show potential for cost savings and improved patient outcomes.
  • Innovation in areas such as mobile health, sensor technology, and AI is reshaping the sector.
  • Consolidation is likely as product life cycles mature.

4. Wholesale and Distribution Segment

• Global Sales: Projected to grow from $752 billion in 2014 to $1.04 trillion in 2019, at an average annual rate of 6.82%.
• Key Drivers:
  • Expansion of the pharma industry.
  • Use of temperature-sensitive drugs.
  • Growing demand for therapies in emerging markets.
• Leading Players: AmerisourceBergen, Cardinal Health, and McKesson dominate the market, collectively holding over 50% of the global share.
• Challenges:
  • Data standardization and integration.
  • Regulatory compliance and product safety are critical.
  • Cost pressures and market saturation in some regions.

Key Challenges

• Economic Uncertainty: Weakness in emerging currencies and economic instability in several regions (e.g., Russia, China, Brazil) impact pricing and revenue.
• Pricing Pressures: Governments and payers are pushing for cost containment through price cuts, value-based pricing, and pro-generic policies.
• Regulatory Complexity: Increased scrutiny and evolving rules in the U.S. and Europe are shaping the approval and reimbursement landscape.
• Tax Compliance: With the OECD's BEPS Action Plan, companies must adopt a risk-based approach to tax planning, especially in light of global regulatory changes.
• Market Saturation: In developed markets, medtech and pharma may face increased competition and shrinking margins.

Regional Perspectives

• United States:
  • Pharma sales are expected to grow at 4.3% annually.
  • The FDA has expedited regulatory processes for medical devices.
  • Generics account for 70% of the pharma market by volume.
• Europe:
  • France is implementing stricter pricing and reimbursement policies.
  • Germany is expected to see increased biosimilar adoption.
  • The EU is modernizing medical device regulations.
• Asia-Pacific:
  • China and India are major markets for biotech and pharma growth.
  • Indonesia has adopted universal health coverage, increasing generic drug use.
• Emerging Markets:
  • Brazil has a strong demographic trend for chronic diseases and is expected to grow.
  • Mexico has a stable economy and ongoing health reforms.
  • Russia remains an important market despite political and economic challenges.

Outlook and Recommendations

• Cautious Optimism: Life sciences companies should approach 2016 with a balanced view of opportunities and challenges.
• Focus Areas:
  • Innovation in patient-centric and value-based care models.
  • Adaptation to regulatory and compliance changes.
  • Expansion into emerging markets, while managing economic and political risks.
• Strategic Moves:
  • M&A activity is expected to continue, though with more caution due to tax and regulatory considerations.
  • Companies are shifting focus from blockbuster models to more sustainable, outcomes-based approaches.

Conclusion

The life sciences sector is navigating a complex and evolving landscape, marked by economic uncertainty, pricing pressures, and regulatory changes. While global health spending and pharma sales are projected to grow, the pace is slower than before the 2009 recession. Companies must adapt through portfolio transformation, innovation, and strategic M&A, while also addressing tax compliance and regulatory challenges. The future of the sector hinges on balancing these factors to ensure long-term sustainability and growth.