2025-05-06-联合国西亚经济社会委员会-美国关税冲击波_对阿拉伯地区的影响（英）_12页_1mb

报告摘要

United States Tariff Shockwaves: Impacts on the Arab Region

Overview

The United States announced wide-ranging new tariffs on April 2, 2025, under President Trump's "America First" policy. These tariffs include a universal 10% tariff on nearly all imports, with higher rates (10-42%) applied to countries with large trade surpluses with the US, including China and several Arab countries affected despite minimal trade ties. Many goods previously protected under free trade agreements and preferential access are now subject to high tariffs.

Key Findings

Arab Exports to US: Declined from $91 billion in 2013 to $48 billion in 2024. The US has maintained a trade surplus with the Arab region since 2015.
Tariff Impact: Direct impact varies by country. Jordan faces the highest impact, with nearly 25% of its goods exported to the US. Other affected countries include Egypt, Bahrain, Morocco, and Tunisia.
Non-Oil Exports: Worth $22 billion in 2024, these are now directly tariffed, while oil exports remain exempt.
Quantitative Estimates: The tariff shock leads to significant negative impacts on real GDP, exports, investments, and imports, varying between country groups. GCC countries are expected to face a small net impact, but may suffer if oil prices decline.
Global Financial Strain: Yields on sovereign bonds increase, raising borrowing costs and increasing sovereign debt service by tens of millions of dollars for several Arab MICs (Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, Tunisia).

Policy Recommendations

Prepare for diverse impacts and asymmetric effects.
Deepen regional integration (e.g., Pan-Arab Free Trade Area) to enhance collective bargaining.
Diversify trade and investment partnerships beyond the US.
Engage proactively in strategic negotiations with the US to preserve market access.
Leverage legal frameworks and preferential carve-outs to secure exemptions.
Position themselves in global value chains to capture new trade opportunities.
Strengthen fiscal buffers and resilient financing strategies to address trade vulnerabilities.

The escalating trade tensions call for timely and appropriate policy responses to mitigate the disruptive impact and safeguard the socio-economic well-being of the Arab region.

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