20150625-Maybank_KERPL-Power_Impulse-Utilities___renewables_weekly_14页_647kb

报告摘要

HK utilities was the best performing sector, rising 5.3% WoW from 16 Jun to 22 Jun.
Nuclear also showed positive performance, up 0.7% WoW.
Spot polysilicon price fell 0.33% WoW to USD15.30/kg.
Spot wafer price remained flat at USD0.804/piece.
Qinhuangdao spot coal price (5,500 kcal/kg, Shanxi Premium Blended) dropped 0.5% WoW to CNY403/tonne.

Indonesia increased its 2016 renewable energy budget five times, from USD165m to USD824m, with distributed solar PV as a key focus.
India has a robust solar target of 100GW by 2022.
The analyst believes the increased solar development in Asia could offset lower demand in Europe and drive demand for solar components.
Component makers like GCL-Poly (3800 HK) are expected to benefit.
Solar project developers such as GCL New Energy (451 HK) and Xinyi Solar (968 HK) may gain more overseas projects.

China and Argentina signed an agreement for a 200MW solar farm project, the largest in Latin America.
Estimated investment is USD440m.
This project is expected to promote the export of Chinese new energy technology and equipment to Latin America.
The analyst anticipates more cooperation between the two countries, including in nuclear and hydropower.
It will benefit power equipment companies.

Data Category	Date	Output/Price	WoW/MoM (%)	YoY (%)
Total power generation	May	456,200 GWh	+2.5% MoM	0%
Wind power generation	Apr	18,700 GWh	+5% MoM	+38%
Thermal power generation	May	344,400 GWh	+1.0% MoM	-1.7%
Hydro power generation	May	76,700 GWh	+9.3% MoM	+2.0%
Coal spot price (CNY)	15 Jun	403/tonne	-0.5% WoW	-23.2%
Coal inventory (day)	10 May	18 days	+0 day*	-5 day

Note: * compared to 10 days ago.

Sub-sector	1D%	5D%	1M%	3M%	6M%	YTD%
China IPPs	+3.8%	+4.9%	-0.1%	+24.7%	+16.6%	-0.2%
Nuclear	-0.9%	+0.7%	-4.5%	+33.5%	+21.4%	+3.7%
Gas distributors	-0.2%	+5.3%	-3.4%	+8.3%	+11.7%	-1.7%
HK utilities	+0.4%	+2.5%	-1.7%	-1.0%	+3.7%	-0.4%
Solar	+1.1%	+4.0%	-8.6%	+8.8%	+22.0%	-2.3%
Wind	+2.0%	+3.7%	-6.5%	+23.3%	+32.5%	-1.0%

Company Name	BBG Code (A)	Px (CNY)	BBG (H)	Px (HKD)	H prem./disc. to A
Huaneng Power	600011 CH	12.29	902 HK	10.54	-31%
Datang Int'l	601991 CH	7.94	991 HK	4.20	-58%
Huadian Power	600027 CH	9.49	1071 HK	8.60	-27%
Shanghai Elect	601727 CH	17.65	2727 HK	6.78	-69%
Dongfang Elect	600875 CH	24.69	1072 HK	15.46	-50%

Company	Bloomberg Code	Mkt Cap (USDm)	Closing Price	Rating	Target Price	FY15E PER	FY16E PER	FY15E P/BV	FY16E P/BV	FY15E DY	FY16E DY	FY15E ROE	FY16E ROE
Huaneng Power*	902 HK	26,125	10.54	Hold	9.50	9.1	9.2	1.5	1.4	5.5	5.5	17.7	16.1
China Resources Power*	836 HK	13,434	21.70	Buy	25.00	8.5	8.2	1.3	1.2	3.9	4.2	15.7	14.7
Datang Power*	991 HK	14,584	4.20	Hold	4.50	9.7	7.9	1.0	0.9	4.0	5.3	8.8	12.0
Huadian Power*	1071 HK	12,748	8.60	Hold	8.80	9.7	9.6	1.6	1.5	3.8	3.9	17.4	15.4
China Power International*	2380 HK	5,382	5.77	Buy	4.60	10.3	10.0	1.4	1.3	3.9	4.2	13.4	12.6
Average						9.5	9.0	1.4	1.2	4.2	4.6	14.6	14.2

Company	Bloomberg Code	Mkt Cap (USDm)	Closing Price	Rating	Target Price	FY15E PER	FY16E PER	FY15E P/BV	FY16E P/BV	FY15E DY	FY16E DY	FY15E ROE	FY16E ROE
CGN Power*	1816 HK	24,974	4.26	Buy	4.00	24.4	20.4	2.7	2.5	1.3	1.6	11.5	12.4
Average						18.3	15.9	2.6	2.3	1.6	1.8	14.6	14.9

Company	Bloomberg Code	Mkt Cap (USDm)	Closing Price	Rating	Target Price	FY15E PER	FY16E PER	FY15E P/BV	FY16E P/BV	FY15E DY	FY16E DY	FY15E ROE	FY16E ROE
CLP	2 HK	21,835	67.00	NR	NR	15.7	14.8	1.8	1.7	4.0	4.1	11.8	12.0
Power Assets*	6 HK	20,207	73.40	Buy	87.00	17.8	18.1	1.2	1.2	3.7	3.8	7.1	6.8
CKI*	1038 HK	20,232	62.25	Buy	75.00	14.8	14.4	1.5	1.4	3.4	3.6	10.4	10.1
HKE Trust	2638 HK	6,132	5.38	NR	NR	14.3	14.3	1.0	1.0	7.4	7.5	6.7	6.7
Average						15.7	15.4	1.4	1.3	4.6	4.8	9.0	8.9

Company	Bloomberg Code	Mkt Cap (USDm)	Closing Price	Rating	Target Price	FY15E PER	FY16E PER	FY15E P/BV	FY16E P/BV	FY15E DY	FY16E DY	FY15E ROE	FY16E ROE
GCL-Poly*	3800 HK	3,796	1.90	Buy	2.80	11.5	8.3	1.4	1.2	0.7	1.0	12.3	15.0
Xinyi Solar*	968 HK	2,835	3.34	Buy	3.60	17.8	13.1	4.2	3.4	2.1	2.8	27.4	28.5
GCL New Energy*	451 HK	1,431	0.80	Buy	1.60	17.8	8.0	3.2	2.7	0.0	0.0	17.6	30.6
Singyes Solar*	750 HK	945	10.52	Hold	12.20	7.6	6.5	1.5	1.2	1.3	1.5	21.6	21.1
United PV	686 HK	813	1.33	NR	NR	16.4	13.3	1.7	1.3	N/A	0.0	14.2	11.3
Comtec Solar	712 HK	228	1.27	NR	NR	14.7	23.6	0.8	0.9	1.6	N/A	4.3	5.3
Average						14.3	12.1	2.1	1.8	1.1	1.1	16.2	18.6

Company	Bloomberg Code	Mkt Cap (USDm)	Closing Price	Rating	Target Price	FY15E PER	FY16E PER	FY15E P/BV	FY16E P/BV	FY15E DY	FY16E DY	FY15E ROE	FY16E ROE
Longyuan Power*	916 HK	9,319	8.99	Buy	12.00	16.0	13.6	1.6	1.5	1.2	1.5	10.3	10.9
Goldwind	2208 HK	8,374	17.16	NR	NR	15.9	13.9	2.3	2.1	3.3	3.7	15.2	15.6
Huadian Fuxin	816 HK	4,230	3.90	NR	NR	10.4	8.5	1.5	1.3	1.9	2.3	14.7	15.7
Huaneng Renewables*	958 HK	4,041	3.22	Buy	3.50	15.1	11.7	1.4	1.3	1.2	1.7	9.8	11.2
Beijing Jingneng Clean Energy	579 HK	2,960	3.34	NR	NR	9.2	7.9	1.3	1.1	2.4	2.8	14.3	15.4
China High Speed Transmission	658 HK	1,479	7.01	NR	NR	12.8	11.6	1.0	0.9	0.5	0.7	8.2	8.3
Datang Renewable*	1798 HK	1,220	1.30	Hold	1.10	23.1	15.5	0.8	0.7	0.7	1.0	3.3	4.3
Concord New Energy	182 HK	704	0.61	NR	NR	10.7	8.2	0.9	0.8	0.5	0.7	7.7	9.8
Average						14.1	11.4	1.3	1.2	1.5	1.8	10.4	11.4

HK utilities outperformed other sectors in the week, showing strong performance.
Nuclear also had a modest increase, indicating potential growth in this area.
Solar and wind showed mixed performance in terms of stock price, with some companies rated as Buy and others as Hold or NR.
Coal prices remained flat or slightly down, with Qinhuangdao spot coal price down 0.5% WoW.
Solar spot prices dropped slightly, with polysilicon falling 0.33% WoW and wafers remaining flat.
Natural gas consumption showed weak growth, with a -8.3% MoM in April.
Power generation in China remained sluggish, with thermal and hydro showing varied performance.

Ricky WK Ng, CFA provided the analysis.
The report is sourced from Bloomberg, Wind, CEIC, PVInsights, Maybank KE.
The report is updated daily and is exclusively collected by www.baogaoba.xyz.

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