2016-05-01-奥纬咨询-Improving_Electric_Service_Reliability_11页_581kb

Summary of "IMPROVING ELECTRIC SERVICE RELIABILITY: EMPLOYING EMERGING TECHNIQUES TO SOLVE AGE-OLD PROBLEMS"

Core Content

Electric service reliability has become increasingly critical for consumers due to the growing reliance on electricity for both essential and non-essential services. Utilities have made progress in improving reliability, but there is still significant room for enhancement, especially in reducing outage duration.

Key Trends in Reliability Performance

• SAIFI (System Average Interruption Frequency Index):

  • Median annual non-storm service interruptions decreased by 16% from 2005 to 2010, and by 11% from 2010 to 2015.
  • A quarter of benchmarked utilities saw a decline in SAIFI over the past decade.
  • Eight utilities remained worse than the 2005 median SAIFI.
  • SAIFI improvements slowed in the past five years compared to the previous five-year period.

• SAIDI (System Average Interruption Duration Index):

  • Improved by 10% over the past five years, driven by a reduction in the number of interruptions.
  • However, the CAIDI (Customer Average Interruption Duration Index) has increased by nearly 5% since 2010, indicating that the average duration of outages has worsened.

• Outage Performance:

  • Some utilities have managed to improve both SAIFI and CAIDI by over 10% over the past decade.
  • There is potential for further improvements, especially for utilities that have not yet achieved significant gains.

Approaches to Improve Reliability

Reducing Frequency Interruptions

• Capital Investment: Utilities are enhancing distribution network design to reduce the number of outages.
• Sectionalization: Installing reclosers to limit the number of customers affected by sustained outages.
• Maintenance Programs: Equipment repair, replacement, and vegetation management help prevent outages.
• Advanced Analytics: Used to identify and prioritize feeders for investment, maximizing the impact of each dollar spent.

Reducing Duration of Interruptions

• Operational Excellence: Focused on improving restoration response and repair processes.
• Anatomy of an Outage: Analyzing each step of the outage process to identify bottlenecks and inefficiencies.
• Culture and Habits: Changing internal practices to respond more quickly and effectively.
• Staffing Optimization: Using queuing theory to model and adjust staffing levels, shift sizes, and field roles.
• Technology Integration: Leveraging smart grids and AMI (Advanced Metering Infrastructure) to monitor network health and detect issues before they cause outages.
• Machine Learning: Enhancing pre-storm prediction, planning, and preparation.

Next Steps for Utilities

• Advanced Analytics: Utilizing data from AMI and OMS (Outage Management System) to validate interruption data and improve accuracy.
• Customer-Centric Metrics: Developing new versions of the CEMI (Customers Experiencing Multiple Interruptions) metric to assess overall customer impact, including both momentary and sustained outages.
• Strategic Focus: Moving beyond traditional metrics to better understand and address customer inconvenience, regardless of outage duration.

Conclusion

Reliability improvements are achievable through a combination of design optimization, operational excellence, and advanced analytics. While some utilities have made significant progress, many still have opportunities to enhance their performance. Emerging technologies and data-driven approaches offer valuable tools to improve reliability within existing budgets, benefiting both utilities and their customers.

Authors

• Alan Feibelman: alan.feibelman@oliverwyman.com | +1 617-424-3405
• Curtis Underwood: curtis.underwood@oliverwyman.com | +1 617-424-3511
• Daniel Ludwin: daniel.ludwin@oliverwyman.com | +1 617-480-8596

About Oliver Wyman

• A leading global management consulting firm with offices in over 50 cities across 26 countries.
• Combines deep industry knowledge with expertise in strategy, operations, risk management, and organization transformation.
• Offers services across all sectors of the utility market, including energy.

About Oliver Wyman's Energy Practice

• Helps utilities address strategic and operational challenges with proven, results-oriented approaches.
• Has extensive experience working with leading international and domestic utilities in the Americas, Europe, and the Middle East.