2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Philippines_Staff_Report_for_the_2011_Article_IV_Consultation_64页_1mb

2011 ARTICLE IV CONSULTATION: PHILIPPINES SUMMARY

Core Content

The 2011 Article IV consultation report on the Philippines outlines the country's macroeconomic performance, policy responses, and future outlook in the context of a fragile global environment. The report is prepared by the IMF staff and reflects their assessment of the Philippines' economic situation and policy actions. It also includes the views of the Executive Board and the authorities, emphasizing the need for maintaining macroeconomic stability and fostering inclusive growth.

Key Issues and Main Points

1. Economic Context

• Growth Slowdown: After reaching 7.6% in 2010, growth slowed to 3.6% in the first three quarters of 2011. This was driven by a decline in electronics exports, particularly semiconductors, and reduced public construction.
• Macroeconomic Stability: Despite the slowdown, macroeconomic conditions remained generally sound with inflation within the target range, a low national government deficit, a balance of payments surplus, and a resilient financial sector.
• Domestic Demand: Private consumption was supported by robust remittances, while services growth remained strong due to BPO and real estate expansion.
• Fiscal Policy: The national government deficit fell below the targeted 3% of GDP in 2011, mainly due to lower capital expenditure. A fiscal withdrawal of 1.8% of GDP was expected for the year, with the deficit projected to reach 1.5% of GDP in 2012.
• Balance of Payments: The balance of payments remained in surplus, with remittances and service exports playing a crucial role. International reserves increased significantly, reaching $75.3 billion by November 2011.

2. Outlook for 2012

• Growth Projection: The staff expects growth to rise from 3.7% in 2011 to 4.2% in 2012, supported by stronger domestic demand and public spending.
• Downside Risks: The external environment remains a key downside risk, with potential spillovers from global economic shocks affecting exports, financial flows, and remittances.
• Medium-Term Growth: Growth is projected to recover to its potential rate of around 5% over the medium term. However, the staff's growth projection is lower than the authorities' 7-8% target, which would require additional measures to achieve.
• Current Account and Capital Flows: A current account surplus of nearly 2% of GDP is expected, supported by remittances and export diversification. Capital inflows are expected to continue due to structural drivers.

3. Monetary Policy

• Response to Circumstances: Monetary policy has been effective in supporting growth while keeping inflation manageable. The central bank (BSP) paused tightening due to global downside risks and low core inflation.
• Monetary Transmission: Short-term Treasury and interbank rates have fallen below policy rates, limiting the impact of policy rate changes on lending rates. The BSP's ability to manage liquidity is constrained by its limited holdings of treasury securities and lack of legal authority to issue central bank securities.
• Policy Tools: The BSP should have the tools to manage liquidity actively, including the ability to issue its own bills. Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is important to strengthen the monetary mechanism.

4. Reserves and Exchange Rate

• Reserve Levels: International reserves are high, with the Philippines holding 10.2 months of imports, surpassing standard precautionary metrics.
• Exchange Rate Flexibility: The real exchange rate remains broadly in line with medium-term fundamentals. The authorities aim to limit foreign exchange market intervention to smoothing operations, allowing the exchange rate to adjust to market pressures.
• Reserve Cushion: Reserves can be used to smooth volatile outflows, and the regulatory move on NDFs is seen as a macro-prudential tool to manage exchange market volatility.

5. Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Consolidation: The authorities are committed to a gradual fiscal consolidation, aiming to reduce the national government deficit from 3.5% of GDP in 2010 to 2% of GDP by 2013.
• Fiscal Strategy: The strategy includes improving tax administration, reorienting expenditures toward social sectors and infrastructure, and managing public debt to reduce exchange rate and maturity risk.
• Tax Efforts: A significant tax effort is needed to achieve fiscal objectives. Revenue is expected to increase by 1.5% of GDP in 2012. Tax administration improvements are projected to generate similar gains, with additional measures needed to broaden the tax base and improve equity.

6. Financial Sector Resilience

• Vulnerabilities: The financial sector remains resilient, but vulnerabilities such as concentration risk, interest rate risk, real estate exposure, and global spillovers require continued monitoring.
• Macro-Prudential Measures: The BSP has implemented measures to reduce systemic risks, including raising market risk weights on NDFs. These measures help maintain financial stability.

7. Structural Reforms and Inclusive Growth

• Philippines Development Plan (PDP): The PDP emphasizes building a more inclusive and faster-growing economy. It includes a multi-pronged growth strategy with a focus on infrastructure, social safety nets, and job creation.
• Fiscal Reorientation: Expenditures are being reoriented toward key priorities for inclusive growth, including education, health, and infrastructure.
• Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs): PPPs are planned to start in 2012 to support infrastructure development, but their fiscal risks need to be carefully monitored.

Key Information

• Growth in 2011: 3.6% (y/y), down from 7.6% in 2010.
• Inflation in 2011: Headline inflation was around 4.5% (y/y), slightly above the midpoint of the 3–5% target range.
• Deficit in 2011: 1% of GDP (P96 billion), significantly below the annual budget objective of 3% of GDP (P300 billion).
• Reserves in 2011: Increased by $12.9 billion, reaching $75.3 billion.
• Exchange Rate: Appreciated by 0.7% in real effective terms during January-November 2011.
• Fiscal Withdrawal in 2012: Expected to be 1.8% of GDP.
• Tax Revenue Gain in 2011: Estimated at 0.5% of GDP due to improved tax administration.
• Projected Growth in 2012: 4.2% (y/y), with the possibility of higher growth if external conditions improve.
• Medium-Term Growth Target: Around 5% (potential rate), with the staff's projection lower than the authorities' 7–8% target.
• Public Debt Reduction: Expected to fall from 51% of GDP in 2011 to 44% by 2016.

Conclusion

The report highlights the Philippines' ability to maintain macroeconomic stability despite global uncertainties. While domestic demand is expected to support growth in 2012, the external environment remains a key risk. The authorities' commitment to fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and inclusive growth is welcomed by the IMF staff, who emphasize the importance of continued monitoring and policy flexibility.