2018亚洲发展展望_科技如何影响工作（英文版）_347页_3mb

Summary of Asian Development Outlook 2018

Core Content

The Asian Development Outlook 2018 provides an analysis of economic growth, inflation trends, and the impact of technology on employment in developing Asia. It highlights both the opportunities and challenges posed by technological advancements in the labor market and emphasizes the need for government intervention to ensure inclusive growth and protect workers.

Main Points

• Economic Growth Outlook:
  Developing Asia is expected to maintain strong growth, with a forecast of 6.0% in 2018 and 5.9% in 2019. Excluding high-income newly industrialized economies, growth is projected to be even higher at 6.5% and 6.4% respectively.

• Growth Drivers:

  • Strong external demand and robust domestic demand.
  • Increased investment and consumption in key economies.
  • Continued expansion of the industrial base in Vietnam.
  • Improved productivity and service sector growth in China and India.

• Inflation Trends:

  • Inflation is expected to rise from 2.3% in 2017 to 2.9% in 2018 and 2019 due to higher commodity prices and increased consumer demand.
  • Central Asia saw inflation drop from 10.6% in 2016 to 9.2% in 2017, but it is expected to rise again to 8.5% in 2019.
  • The PRC’s current account surplus fell slightly in 2017, but Asia’s overall current account surplus with the rest of the world remained stable.

• Risks to Growth:

  • Trade tensions and protectionist policies could undermine trade growth and business confidence.
  • Faster-than-expected interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve might reduce capital inflows to the region.
  • Rising private debt in some economies could threaten macroeconomic stability if not managed properly.

• Role of Private Debt:

  • Private debt has been rising in emerging Asian economies, particularly in household and corporate sectors.
  • While short-term growth is supported by debt accumulation, the long-term effect is likely to be negative.
  • Macroeprudential measures are recommended to prevent excessive credit buildup.

• Subregional Growth Outlook:

  • East Asia: Growth is expected to slow to 6.0% in 2018 and 5.8% in 2019, driven by China's gradual moderation.
  • South Asia: Growth is projected to rise to 7.0% in 2018 and 7.2% in 2019, with India leading the recovery.
  • Southeast Asia: Sustained growth of 5.2% is anticipated for both 2018 and 2019, supported by domestic demand and investment.
  • Central Asia: Growth is expected to moderate to 4.0% in 2018 and reaccelerate to 4.2% in 2019.
  • The Pacific: Growth will remain slower, at 2.2% in 2018, with a projected increase to 3.0% in 2019.

Technology and Jobs

• Positive Impact of Technology:

  • New technologies boost productivity, which is a foundation for better-paid jobs and economic growth.
  • Automation may displace certain jobs, but it also creates new opportunities through rising demand and new industries.

• Key Observations on Job Prospects:

  • Automation typically replaces only some tasks, not entire jobs, allowing workers to adapt and expand their roles.
  • Job displacement is offset by rising demand and new job creation in sectors like ICT, healthcare, and finance.
  • Technological change creates new occupations and industries, particularly in high-tech and service sectors.

• Challenges for Workers:

  • Less-skilled workers may face reduced wage growth and increased income inequality.
  • The transition requires a skilled workforce and may leave some workers behind.

• Government Role:

  • Governments must ensure workers are equipped with foundational and specialized skills.
  • They should support lifelong learning, labor regulation, social protection, and income redistribution.
  • Use of technology in education and public services is encouraged to enhance skills and protect rights.

Key Information

• Growth Rates:

  • 2018: 6.0% for developing Asia, 6.5% excluding high-income newly industrialized economies.
  • 2019: 5.9% for developing Asia, 6.4% excluding high-income newly industrialized economies.

• Inflation Projections:

  • 2018: 2.9%
  • 2019: 2.9%
  • Central Asia: 9.2% in 2017, expected to rise to 8.5% in 2019.

• Technology Impact:

  • Automation does not eliminate jobs but reshapes them.
  • Job creation from rising demand offsets displacement.
  • New industries and occupations will emerge, especially in ICT and services.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Strengthen financial systems to improve the quality of private debt.
  • Implement macroprudential measures to control credit growth.
  • Enhance skills development and labor regulation.
  • Support social protection and income redistribution.
  • Use technology to improve education and public services.