2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Suriname_Technical_Assistance_Report_–_CARTAC_Report_on_the_Price_Statistics_Mission_16页_439kb

Summary of the CARTAC Report on the Price Statistics Mission in Suriname

Core Content

This report outlines the findings and recommendations of a Technical Assistance Mission conducted by the IMF's Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) in Suriname, from August 21 to September 1, 2017. The mission aimed to evaluate and improve the country's price statistics systems, specifically the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index (PPI), and Export and Import Price Indexes (XPI). The report is based on the information available as of March 2018 and is intended to guide the Suriname General Bureau of Statistics (GBS) in enhancing the accuracy and reliability of its price statistics.

Main Recommendations

I. Consumer Price Index (CPI)

• Coverage, Weights, and Classifications:

  • The CPI weights, product groups, and outlets are based on the Household Budget Survey (HBS) conducted from November 2013 to August 2014.
  • The GBS currently uses a Laspeyres-type index and a Dutot formula at the elementary aggregate (EA) level.
  • The mission recommends switching to a Jevons (geometric average) index at the EA level for better statistical properties.
  • The GBS should consider publishing the CPI according to the COICOP classification at a class level, provided the number of items permits.
  • The use of COICOP should focus on relatively important classes to ensure comprehensive coverage.

• Price Collection:

  • Prices are collected from five regional domains, each with varying numbers of items.
  • The mission recommends increasing the number of price observations per domain to better reflect price volatility.
  • The use of imputation or direct comparison should be considered for temporarily missing prices.
  • A carry forward method is acceptable for goods and services with stable prices, such as certain fees.
  • The number of outlet types should reflect the consumption habits of residents, and market shares could be used for aggregation where applicable.

• Index Compilation:

  • The mission recommends using the Jevons index at the elementary aggregate level for all products.
  • The Laspeyres-type formula should continue to be used from the elementary aggregate level upwards.
  • Monetary units (MU) should be used as weights to ensure consistency in aggregation.
  • Quantity adjustments should be done at the item level to avoid misleading price changes.

• Index Publication:

  • The GBS publishes the CPI around the 22nd of the month following the reference month.
  • The mission recommends the publication of metadata on the GBS website for greater transparency.
  • A press conference should continue when publishing a rebased CPI.

II. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Export and Import Price Indexes (XPI)

• Scope, Coverage, Source for Weights, and Next Steps:
  • Suriname is in the process of developing a new PPI.
  • The PPI and XPI should be developed in close cooperation with the national accounts division.
  • The GBS has completed the Establishment Census 2016, which could serve as a sampling frame for the PPI.
  • The mission recommends starting the PPI with an output index for industries important to the main users.
  • The XPI should be developed using price surveys and unit values as part of the PPI development.
  • The weights, sample design, and samples for the PPI should be derived from the recently developed Business Register (BR).
  • Options to improve response rates, such as follow-up and incentives, should be considered.
  • The Statistics Act should be strengthened to ensure data confidentiality and quality.

Key Information

• CPI Reference Period: The current CPI has a reference period of April-June 2016, based on the HBS.
• CPI Weight Changes: The biggest changes in weights were in food and non-alcoholic beverages (-9.1 percentage points), and housing and utilities (+8.8 percentage points).
• Missing Prices: 24–44 percent of prices were missing during the price collection for food and non-alcoholic beverages, with most cases handled via shadow alternative or group imputation.
• PPI Development: The development of a PPI is crucial for improving quarterly GDP growth measures and nominal gross value-added estimates.
• Data Sources: The GBS has access to the Business Register (BR) and Supply and Use Tables (SUTs), which can support PPI development.
• Survey Coverage: The GBS conducts three main establishment surveys: QESS, ANAS, and SBS, each with high non-response rates (40–65%).
• Sampling Frame: The BR provides a comprehensive list of business establishments, which can be used as a sampling frame for the PPI.
• Confidentiality and Dissemination: The mission emphasizes the importance of confidentiality and proper dissemination of data.

Tables and Appendices

• Table 1: Shows the changes in CPI weights between April-June 2009 and April-June 2016.
• Table 2: Details the treatment of missing prices in the CPI for the months May-17, Jun-17, and Jul-17.
• Table 3: Illustrates the effect of the quantity adjustment method on price index calculation.
• Appendix 1: Compares the performance of different index formulas (Dutot, Carli, Jevons) in terms of unit measurement, time reversal, and transitivity tests.
• Appendix 2: Demonstrates the consistency in aggregation using monetary units (MU) for weighing, showing how the CPI is calculated at different levels.

Conclusion

The mission highlights the importance of reliable price statistics for informed economic policy-making and international comparisons. It provides detailed recommendations for improving the CPI, developing a PPI, and enhancing data collection and dissemination practices. The report underscores the need for methodological improvements, better data sources, and increased transparency in the publication of price statistics.