20180605-NATIXIS-The_Italian_crisis_shows_which_assets_are_safe_havens_6页_699kb

Flash Economics: The Italian Crisis and Safe Haven Assets

Core Content

The document analyzes the financial market reactions to the Italian political and debt crisis that began in the spring of 2018. It identifies which assets acted as safe havens during this period, based on the performance of various financial instruments.

Main Views

1. Safe Haven Assets Identified

The Italian crisis led to increased risk aversion and a debt crisis, which in turn revealed which assets are considered safe havens. These include:

• Government bonds of the United States, the United Kingdom, and core euro-zone countries (Germany, France, and the Netherlands).
• The Swiss franc and Swiss government bonds.
• The Japanese yen.

2. Non-Safe Haven Assets

The following assets did not serve as safe havens during the Italian crisis:

• Gold and Bitcoin showed no significant price movement.
• Commodities (oil and metals) also did not experience a notable rise in prices.

Key Information

(1) Government Bonds

• The crisis caused a rise in Italian government bond yields and risk premia.
• Government bonds from the U.S., U.K., and core euro-zone countries (Germany, France, Netherlands) saw price increases, indicating their role as safe havens.
• Switzerland and Japan also showed similar patterns, with Swiss franc appreciation and yen strengthening.

(2) Japan

• The Japanese yen appreciated during the crisis.
• This suggests that investors turned to the yen as a safe-haven currency.

(3) Switzerland

• The Swiss franc appreciated, and long-term Swiss interest rates fell.
• This highlights the Swiss franc's role as a safe-haven currency and Switzerland's government bonds as safe-haven assets.

(4) Gold and Bitcoin

• Neither gold nor Bitcoin showed a significant price increase during the crisis.
• This indicates that they are not reliable safe-haven assets in this context.

(5) Commodities

• Commodity prices, including oil and metals, did not rise during the crisis.
• This suggests that commodities are not safe-haven assets during a political and debt crisis.

Conclusion

The Italian crisis in 2018 revealed that the following are currently considered safe-haven assets:

• Government bonds of the United States, the United Kingdom, and core euro-zone countries.
• The Japanese yen.
• The Swiss franc and Swiss government bonds.

Other assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and commodities did not serve as safe havens during this period.

Disclaimer

• This document is intended for professional and qualified investors only.
• It is confidential and must not be disclosed to third parties without prior written consent from Natixis.
• It does not constitute a personalized investment recommendation or a financial analysis.
• Natixis makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy, completeness, or relevance of the information provided.
• The document and its contents are subject to change without notice.
• The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Natixis or its affiliates.

Regulatory Information

• Natixis is supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB).
• It is authorized and regulated in various jurisdictions, including France, the UK, Germany, Spain, Italy, and the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC).
• In the U.S., this report is distributed solely to major institutional investors and is not available to the general public.
• In Hong Kong, it is distributed only to professional investors as defined by local regulations.