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Flash Economics: Italian Crisis and Safe Haven Assets (June 5, 2018)

Core Content

The document analyzes the impact of the Italian political and economic crisis in the spring of 2018 on financial asset prices, focusing on identifying safe haven assets during times of increased risk aversion.

Main Points

• Safe Haven Assets Identified: The Italian crisis highlighted specific financial assets that serve as safe havens during periods of heightened risk aversion.
• Government Bonds: Government bonds of the U.S., U.K., and core euro-zone countries (Germany, France, Netherlands, and to a lesser extent Austria) showed price increases, indicating their role as safe havens.
• Japanese Yen: The yen appreciated during the crisis, suggesting its status as a safe haven asset.
• Swiss Franc and Government Bonds: The Swiss franc appreciated, and Swiss government bonds also performed well, reinforcing their safe haven status.
• Gold and Bitcoin: Neither gold nor bitcoin showed significant price increases during the crisis, indicating they are not considered safe haven assets.
• Commodities: Commodity prices, including oil and metals, did not rise in response to the Italian crisis, further confirming their non-safe haven status.

Key Information

• Asset Performance: The analysis is based on the performance of asset prices relative to the yield spread of Italian government bonds against German bonds.
• Risk Premia Increase: The crisis led to an increase in risk premia across various asset classes, including corporate bonds, equities, and emerging market assets.
• Market Reactions: The document emphasizes that the Italian crisis triggered a shift in investor behavior, with capital flowing into perceived safer assets.
• Disclaimer and Legal Context: The document is intended for professional and qualified investors only. It is confidential and not a personalized investment recommendation. It does not constitute financial analysis or independent investment research and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments.

Conclusion

The Italian crisis in 2018 revealed the following safe-haven assets:

• Government Bonds: U.S., U.K., and core euro-zone (Germany, France, Netherlands) government bonds.
• Safe Currencies: Japanese yen and Swiss franc.
• Swiss Government Bonds: In addition to the Swiss franc, Swiss government bonds were also identified as safe havens.

Legal and Regulatory Information

• Confidentiality: The document is strictly confidential and must not be disclosed to third parties without prior written consent.
• Regulatory Bodies: Natixis is supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), authorized and regulated in France by the ACPR, in the U.K. by the FCA and Prudential Regulation Authority, and in Germany by BaFin.
• Jurisdictional Restrictions: Distribution of the document may be restricted in certain jurisdictions, and recipients are advised to comply with local laws.
• No Liability: Natixis does not accept liability for the distribution, possession, or delivery of the document in any jurisdiction, nor for any assumptions or opinions contained within it.
• Investment Disclaimer: The document does not take into account specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of any recipient. It is for informational purposes only.

Final Note

The document underscores the importance of understanding market behavior during crises and highlights the role of specific assets in providing stability. It also serves as a reminder of the legal and regulatory framework surrounding financial information dissemination.