2013年-ECB欧洲央行_Recent_developments_in_unprocessed_food_prices_4页_254kb

Box 8: Recent Developments in Unprocessed Food Prices

Core Content

This document discusses recent trends in unprocessed food prices within the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), highlighting their significant impact on overall inflation in the euro area. It also examines the nature of the upward pressures and their implications for future inflation expectations.

Main Points

• Recent Inflation Trends:
  Unprocessed food prices experienced strong growth, with an annual rate of around 5% in May to July 2013. This component, though only accounting for 7.3% of the total HICP basket, made a notable contribution to overall inflation.

• Historical Context:
  The only period with higher annual growth rates in unprocessed food prices was in 2001 and early 2002, driven by health concerns related to animal diseases. In contrast, the recent increase was primarily due to vegetable and fruit price rises.

• Volatility and Seasonality:
  Vegetable and fruit prices are the most volatile sub-components of unprocessed food inflation. This volatility is largely influenced by seasonal variations and weather-related supply disruptions. The methodology changes in the HICP have increased the uncertainty in comparing current data with historical patterns.

• Weather Impact:
  The strong upward movement in fruit and vegetable prices in spring 2013 is attributed to poor weather conditions, including a longer winter and excessive rainfall, which led to delayed or poor harvests in both northern and southern European countries. These conditions contributed to higher prices in the affected regions.

• Regional Variations:
  The increase in prices varied across countries, with some experiencing more significant price hikes than others. This variation supports the view that regional weather conditions were the primary cause of the price surge.

• Chart Analysis:

  • Chart A: Illustrates the annual percentage changes in unprocessed food prices and their sub-components, showing that vegetable and fruit prices contributed most to the recent inflation.
  • Chart B: Displays the intra-annual pattern of fruit and vegetable prices in the euro area, highlighting that the cumulative change since August 2012 exceeded historical averages and one standard deviation.
  • Chart C: Provides box plots summarizing the distribution of annual rates of change in fruit and vegetable prices since 1999, showing that the 2013 rates were above the third quartile in most countries.

Key Information

• Temporary Nature of Inflation:
  The recent high inflation rates in unprocessed food are considered temporary, reflecting the inherent volatility of seasonal price movements rather than long-term trends.

• Future Outlook:
  With no further supply shocks, vegetable and fruit prices are expected to follow their usual seasonal patterns. Preliminary data for August 2013 already suggest a decline in the annual rate of change of unprocessed food prices.

• Implications for Inflation:
  The recent developments in unprocessed food prices do not indicate a sustained period of high inflation. Instead, they suggest that the euro area's underlying price pressures remain subdued.

Summary

The strong increase in unprocessed food prices in 2013 was mainly driven by vegetable and fruit price rises, which were influenced by adverse weather conditions. These price movements were more volatile than previous periods and exhibited greater deviations from historical averages. However, the upward pressures are likely to be temporary, as the prices are expected to return to their usual seasonal patterns in the absence of further supply shocks. The analysis indicates that the euro area's underlying inflationary pressures remain relatively low, and the recent developments should not be interpreted as a sign of prolonged inflation.